Table S3.

Prior distributions for epidemiological parameters

Variable	Description	Prior distribution or base case value*	Source
1/α	Canine rabies incubation period (days)	N (3.1, 0.128)	Ref. 32
β	Canine rabies transmission rate	Uninformative	—
ε	Canine vaccine efficacy	100%	Ref. 47
η	Vaccination coverage in owned dogs before intervention	β (2,879, 5,621)	Ref. 59, p. 26
μ	Canine death rate (years−1)	N (0.3, 0.04)	Ref. 54
1/σ	Canine rabies infectious period (days)	N (22.3, 1.28)	Ref. 32
♀	Proportion of canine population that is female	0.24	Ref. 27
♂	Proportion of canine population that is male	0.76	Ref. 27
ρ	Annual pregnancy rate for female dogs	0.475	Ref. 54
λ	Median litter size	5	Ref. 26
KO	Carrying capacity, owned dogs	950,000	Ref. 27
KS	Carrying capacity, stray dogs	700,000	Ref. 27
x	Rabies reintroduction rate (rabid dogs per day)	0.25	Assumption
Human health outcomes
βH	Humans bitten per rabid dog	N (0.51, 0.03)	Ref. 32
PEP	Historical PEP coverage	β (439, 477)	Ref. 59, table 17
ω1	Probability of bite to head or neck	Mult (3,882, ω = 0.0178)	Ref. 67
ω2	Probability of bite to upper extremity	0.3150	Ref. 67
ω3	Probability of bite to trunk	0.0242	Ref. 67
ω4	Probability of bite to lower extremity	0.6430	Ref. 67
p1	Probability of rabies given bite to head or neck	0.55	Ref. 35
p2	Probability of rabies given bite to upper extremity	0.22	Ref. 35
p3	Probability of rabies given bite to trunk	0.09	Ref. 35
p4	Probability of rabies given bite to lower extremity	0.12	Ref. 35

^*Variables without distributions use base case values throughout model fitting. Mult, multinomial distribution.