Table 4. Predicted and observed deaths across risk categories among 77 Ebola patients recruited for the Ebola-Tx trial, according to the POC+ model, Conakry, Guinea, 2015*†.
| Death risk category (predicted), % | Total no. patients (column %) | No. deaths observed (row %) | No. deaths predicted (row %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.9 | 28 (36.4) | 1 (3.6) | 0.4 (1.5) |
| 5.0–19.9 | 14 (18.2) | 1 (7.1) | 1.7 (12.3) |
| 20.0–49.9 | 11 (14.3) | 4 (36.4) | 3.7 (34.0) |
| 50.0–79.9 | 7 (9.1) | 4 (57.1) | 4.4 (63.5%) |
| 80.0–100 | 17 (22.1) | 17 (100.0) | 16.7 (98.1) |
*One recruited patient was excluded because of a missing Ct value. Ct, cycle threshold; POC, point-of-care. †POC+ model includes 3 POC measurements (blood creatinine, calcium, and hemoglobin) plus the cycle threshold value of the diagnostic Ebola PCR result and the age of the patient.