Table 2.

Ordinary least squares regression coefficients for the winter water balance suggest that reductions in winter storage in Syrian reservoirs explain the substantial increase in stream flow observed during the refugee crisis

Independent variable	Dependent variable: winter flow (October–May), MCM⋅mo−1
	Q + ∆S	Q	Q + ∆S
Controls for refugee migration	No	Yes	Yes
Refugees, 105 persons		1.160*** (0.195)	0.217 (0.527)
Rain, mm⋅y−1	0.024*** (0.003)	0.014*** (0.004)	0.024*** (0.003)
Lagged rain 4-y average, mm⋅y−1	0.066** (0.031)	0.020 (0.025)	0.055 (0.050)
Intercept	−9.855** (3.988)	−3.694 (3.594)	−8.507 (6.175)
Observations	81	81	81
R2	0.501	0.491	0.502

Q, observed winter flow at Al Wehda; ∆S, remotely sensed increase in reservoir storage volume. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by water year (October 1 to September 30). The winter water balance equation is described in Supporting Information. *P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01.