Table 3.

Associations between 10-year HbA1c trajectory subgroups and diabetes-related outcomes after 10 years^*.

Outcome	Trajectory Subgroup	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
Microvascular events
	Low stable	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
	High decreasing early	2.86 (2.45-3.34)	2.06 (1.75-2.41)	1.28 (1.08-1.53)
	Moderate increasing late	2.69 (2.30-3.15)	2.56 (2.16-3.02)	1.36 (1.12-1.64)
	Moderate peaking late	3.57 (3.07-4.16)	3.12 (2.66-3.65)	1.44 (1.18-1.75)
	Moderate peaking early	4.12 (3.53-4.82)	2.93 (2.49-3.45)	1.45 (1.20-1.75)
Macrovascular events
	Low stable	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
	High decreasing early	0.96 (0.86-1.08)	1.21 (1.08-1.36)	0.99 (0.87-1.12)
	Moderate increasing late	0.78 (0.69-0.89)	1.47 (1.29-1.68)	1.10 (0.95-1.27)
	Moderate peaking late	0.80 (0.70-0.91)	1.27 (1.10-1.45)	0.89 (0.76-1.04)
	Moderate peaking early	0.99 (0.86-1.13)	1.42 (1.24-1.63)	1.02 (0.87-1.18)
Mortality
	Low stable	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
	High decreasing early	1.03 (0.85-1.26)	1.56 (1.28-1.90)	1.27 (1.03-1.58)
	Moderate increasing late	0.55 (0.42-0.72)	1.31 (1.00-1.72)	1.01 (0.76-1.35)
	Moderate peaking late	0.75 (0.59-0.96)	1.68 (1.30-2.16)	1.20 (0.91-1.60)
	Moderate peaking early	0.79 (0.61-1.03)	1.43 (1.09-1.87)	1.05 (0.79-1.41)

Abbreviations: HbA1c, hemoglobin A1c

^*Model 1: unadjusted; Model 2: Adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status, hemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, history of microvascular and macrovascular complications, and comorbidity; Model 3: Model 2+ adjustment for 10 year mean HbA1c