Table 2. Comparison of Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) values and estimation of the Force of infection (FOI) and their 95% Credible Interval (CI) for each model (Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4) from mid-1992 to mid-2014.

Model	Description	Period and region for FOI estimation	Median FOI	CI 95%	DIC
Model 1	No variation of the FOI over space and time	Madagascar	0.029	[0.027–0.033]	2018
Model 2	FOI varied over the four eco-regions but not over time	East	0.029	[0.021–0.039]	1961
		Highlands	0.040	[0.034–0.047]
		North-West	0.066	[0.055–0.079]
		South-West	0.022	[0.018–0.027]
Model 3	FOI varied over time but not over space	mid-1992 to mid-2002	0.040	[0.006–0.080]	1921
		mid-2002/mid-2003	0.049	[0.003–0.126]
		mid-2003/mid-2004	0.023	[0.001–0.081]
		mid-2004/mid-2005	0.026	[0.001–0.077]
		mid-2005/mid-2006	0.016	[7.10–4–0.057]
		mid-2006/mid-2007	0.026	[0.001–0.074]
		mid-2007/mid-2008	0.045	[0.003–0.109]
		mid-2008/mid-2009	0.068	[0.010–0.120]
		mid-2009/mid-2010	0.069	[0.023–0.114]
		mid-2010/mid-2011	0.013	[6.10–4–0.046]
		mid-2011/mid-2012	0.010	[5.10–4–0.031]
		mid-2012/mid-2013	0.003	[1.10–4–0.015]
		mid-2013/mid-2014	0.007	[0.002–0.018]
Model 4	FOI varied over the four eco-regions and over time	East mid-1992 to mid-2002	0.050	[0.002–0.161]	1854
		mid-2002/mid-2003	0.103	[0.005–0.322]
		mid-2003/mid-2004	0.070	[0.003–0.252]
		mid-2004/mid-2005	0.083	[0.004–0.256]
		mid-2005/mid-2006	0.072	[0.003–0.225]
		mid-2006/mid-2007	0.085	[0.005–0.226]
		mid-2007/mid-2008	0.145	[0.020–0.261]
		mid-2008/mid-2009	0.040	[0.001–0.164]
		mid-2009/mid-2010	0.036	[0.002–0.125]
		mid-2010/mid-2011	0.029	[0.001–0.102]
		mid-2011/mid-2012	0.033	[0.002–0.098]
		mid-2012/mid-2013	0.015	[5.10–4–0.062]
		mid-2013/mid-2014	0.009	[3.10–4–0.043]
		Highlands mid-1992 to mid-2002	0.031	[0.002–0.089]
		mid-2002/mid-2003	0.055	[0.003–0.156]
		mid-2003/mid-2004	0.018	[7.10–4–0.080]
		mid-2004/mid-2005	0.018	[7.10–4–0.076]
		mid-2005/mid-2006	0.028	[0.001–0.094]
		mid-2006/mid-2007	0.023	[9.10–4–0.085]
		mid-2007/mid-2008	0.086	[0.009–0.155]
		mid-2008/mid-2009	0.037	[0.002–0.121]
		mid-2009/mid-2010	0.042	[0.002–0.124]
		mid-2010/mid-2011	0.016	[6.10–4–0.069]
		mid-2011/mid-2012	0.009	[3.10–4–0.045]
		mid-2012/mid-2013	0.007	[2.10–4–0.033]
		mid-2013/mid-2014	0.005	[2.10–4–0.027]
		North-West mid-1992 to mid-2002	0.072	[0.004–0.234]
		mid-2002/mid-2003	0.034	[0.001–0.159]
		mid-2003/mid-2004	0.039	[0.002–0.160]
		mid-2004/mid-2005	0.035	[0.001–0.147]
		mid-2005/mid-2006	0.027	[0.001–0.113]
		mid-2006/mid-2007	0.036	[0.002–0.132]
		mid-2007/mid-2008	0.032	[0.001–0.119]
		mid-2008/mid-2009	0.076	[0.006–0.171]
		mid-2009/mid-2010	0.052	[0.003–0.153]
		mid-2010/mid-2011	0.016	[6.10–4–0.076]
		mid-2011/mid-2012	0.010	[3.10–4–0.048]
		mid-2012/mid-2013	0.007	[2.10–4–0.035]
		mid-2013/mid-2014	0.013	[0.002–0.040]
		South-West mid-1992 to mid-2002	0.008	[3.10–4–0.040]
		mid-2002/mid-2003	0.030	[0.001–0.103]
		mid-2003/mid-2004	0.032	[0.002–0.098]
		mid-2004/mid-2005	0.027	[0.001–0.081]
		mid-2005/mid-2006	0.010	[4.10–4–0.044]
		mid-2006/mid-2007	0.024	[0.001–0.063]
		mid-2007/mid-2008	0.011	[4.10–4–0.043]
		mid-2008/mid-2009	0.014	[5.10–4–0.050]
		mid-2009/mid-2010	0.114	[0.036–0.186]
		mid-2010/mid-2011	0.017	[6.10–4–0.075]
		mid-2011/mid-2012	0.010	[4.10–4–0.044]
		mid-2012/mid-2013	0.006	[2.10–4–0.027]
		mid-2013/mid-2014	0.009	[0.001–0.028]