Table 1.

Variables and parameter descriptions

Name	Description
Variables
U	Incidence rate of uncomplicated clinical malaria (per 100,000 person per year)
S	Incidence rate of severe clinical malaria (per 100,000 person per year)
C	Incidence rate of total clinical malaria (C = U + S) (per 100,000 person per year)
D	Incidence rate of malaria mortalitya (per 100,000 person per year)
μ	Proportion of severe cases treated as in-patients (−)
r	Ratio of severe to total clinical cases for in-patients (−)
Q R	Case fatality rate (−) Estimated public health impact (as malaria mortality) averted with maximal improvement to admittance of severe disease patient (μ = 1) (per 100,000 person per year)
$\mathit{\rho }$	The overall ratio of the number of deaths per year in WMR (${\widehat{D}}_t$) [allowing for the national population (N)], to that predicted by OpenMalaria (${\overline{D}}_{t,\mathit{\mu },{\overline{\mathit{\phi }}}_1}$)
Subscripts
h	Indicates in-patient event
c	Indicates event in community
t	Indicates total events
PB	Indicates prediction-biased estimate
DA	Indicates deaths-adjusted estimate
${\mathit{\mu }}_0$	Indicates estimate used in OpenMalaria analysis for the proportion of severe cases treated as in-patients (usually ${\mathit{\mu }}_0$ = 0.48)
${\overline{\mathit{\phi }}}_x$	Indicates estimate calculated with the odds ratio of value ${\overline{\mathit{\phi }}}_x$
Accents
$\overline{}$	Indicates estimation from OpenMalaria simulations
$\widehat{}$	Indicates estimation from WMR

^aThe mortality rates from WMR are compared to the direct mortality from OpenMalaria, the additional indirect mortality due to co-morbidities is not considered