Table 3.
Outcomes at optimal thresholds of Glasgow Blatchford score, AIMS65, and admission Rockall score in prediction of need for intervention, or death. Values are numbers (percentages) unless stated otherwise
| Scoring system | Cut-off | Low risk patients* | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Received transfusion | Endoscopic therapy | Surgery or interventional radiology† | Mortality‡ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow Blatchford | ≤1 | 564 (19.2) | 98.6 | 34.6 | 96.6 | 56.0 | 10 (1.8) | 8 (1.4) | 2 (0.4) | 2 (0.4) |
| AIMS65 | 0 | 865 (34.6) | 81.5 | 49.9 | 74.7 | 59.9 | 165 (19) | 107 (12) | 9 (1.0) | 6 (0.7) |
| Admission Rockall | 0 | 436 (14.7) | 95.6 | 23.4 | 86.5 | 50.9 | 41 (9.4) | 29 (6.7) | 0 (0) | 1 (0.2) |
PPV=positive predictive value; NPV=negative predictive value.
Several patients fulfilled more than one endpoint.
*Classified as low risk according to risk scoring system.
†Number (%) of patients needing surgery, or arterial embolisation among patients classified as low risk.
‡Number (%) of patients dying within 30 days from presentation among patients classified as low risk.