Table 5.
30 day mortality at optimal score thresholds of Glasgow Blatchford score, AIMS65, PNED, and full Rockall score
| Scoring system | Cut-off | No (%) of high risk patients* | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIMS65 | ≥2 | 672 (26.9) | 65.8 | 76.2 | 18.0 | 96.6 |
| PNED | ≥4 | 1065 (37.6) | 77.3 | 65.3 | 14.1 | 97.5 |
| Admission Rockall | ≥4 | 1130 (38.1) | 78.6 | 65.0 | 14.3 | 97.6 |
| Full Rockall | ≥5 | 815 (40.5) | 74.0 | 61.7 | 11.1 | 97.3 |
| Glasgow Blatchford | ≥5 | 1812 (61.8) | 88.7 | 40.2 | 9.9 | 97.9 |
PPV=positive predictive value; NPV=negative predictive value.
*Classified as high risk according to risk scoring system.