Table 3.

Predicted five-year risks per thousand for ‘average’ men and women, who do/do not smoke or have diabetes, according to the primary and recalibrated Australian risk scores and the SCORE results for low- and high-risk European populations

5-year risk/1000
	Smoking	Diabetesa	Primary	Recalibrated	SCORE low	SCORE high
Men
	No	No	1.68	4.95	10.32	19.21
	No	Yes	1.81	5.31	10.32	19.21
	Yes	No	4.17	12.23	20.44	38.22
	Yes	Yes	4.48	13.12	20.44	38.22
Women
	No	No	0.77	1.80	4.31	6.53
	No	Yes	1.26	2.94	4.31	6.53
	Yes	No	1.90	4.45	8.41	12.85
	Yes	Yes	3.11	7.28	8.41	12.85

Risks are for subjects at mean values of continuous risk factors in the 2011–13 Australian Health Survey [12], obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: age 55–59 years, systolic blood pressure = 131.8 mmHg, total cholesterol = 5.25 mmol/l, HDL-cholesterol = 1.24 mmol/l, eGFR = 85.0 (ml/min/m²), eGFR squared = 7197 (ml/min/m²)² and SEIFA fifth = 3.01985

SCORE values are computed from published 10-year risks [15] using ‘compound interest’ logic. SCORE only takes account of age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking

^a SCORE does not include diabetes as a risk factor. The user instructions [15] say that those with diabetes are ‘at very high risk’ which presumably means their predicted 5-year risk is at least 30 per thousand