Table 2. Projected number of future cancers potentially induced by CT scans performed over the next 5 years (period 2016–2020) in the United Kingdom, according to various scenarios of future practices in paediatrics.
|
Avoided or additional future cancers as compared with the reference scenario |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in doses per scan as compared with practices in 2000–2008 | Change in annual CT rate per inhabitant as compared with 2015 | Projected future cancers potentially induced by scans performed in 2016–2020 (90% uncertainty interval) | Absolute difference | Relative difference |
| Dose remaining constant | +10% | 430 (300–870) | +111 | +34% |
| +5% | 370 (260–770) | +52 | +16% | |
| +3% | 350 (250–730) | +30 | +9% | |
| +0% | 320 (230–680) | Reference scenario | ||
| −2% | 300 (220–650) | −19 | −6% | |
| 20% reduction | +10% | 350 (240–700) | 24 | +7% |
| +3% | 280 (200–590) | −40 | −12% | |
| +0% | 260 (180–540) | −64 | −20% | |
| 40% reduction | +10% | 260 (180–520) | −62 | −19% |
| +3% | 210 (150–440) | −111 | −34% | |
| +0% | 190 (140–410) | −129 | −40% | |
Abbreviation: CT=computed tomography. The number of projected future cancers are rounded to the nearest 10.