Table 2.
Multilevel Hazard Model (Odds Ratios) Estimating First Time Out-migration in Chitwan Valley of Nepal, 1997–2001 (N=3,401).
| Measures | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tractor use | 1.24 (3.15)** | – | – | – | 1.23 (3.04)** |
| Farm Implements | – | 1.06 (0.78) | – | – | 1.05 (0.67) |
| Chemical Fertilizer | – | – | 1.04 (0.57) | – | 1.01 (0.09) |
| Pesticides (herbicides or insecticides) | – | – | – | 0.95 (−0.49) | 0.95 (−0.76) |
| Theoretical controls Human capital | |||||
| Enrolled in school | 1.00 (−0.03) | 1.02 (0.21) | 1.00 (0.07) | 1.00 (0.06) | 1.00 (0.01) |
| Years of schooling | 1.04 (6.13)*** | 1.04 (5.85)*** | 1.04 (5.97)*** | 1.04 (6.07)*** | 1.04 (6.02)*** |
| Currently has wage job | 1.07 (1.24) | 1.07 (1.23) | 1.06 (1.05) | 1.06 (1.02) | 1.08 (1.25) |
| Currently has salaried job | 1.69 (5.70)*** | 1.69 (5.65)*** | 1.69 (5.66)*** | 1.69 (5.68)*** | 1.69 (5.68)*** |
| Previous migration experience | 1.01 (4.10)*** | 1.01 (4.27)*** | 1.01 (4.17)*** | 1.01 (4.18)*** | 1.01 (4.10)*** |
| Social capital | |||||
| Household has network tie | 1.60 (1.20) | 1.68 (1.33) | 1.72 (1.39) | 1.75 (1.42) | 1.61 (1.22) |
| Neighborhood prevalence | 1.25 (3.91)*** | 1.25 (3.92)*** | 1.24 (3.84)*** | 1.24 (3.83)*** | 1.24 (3.89) |
| Physical capital | |||||
| Market access | 1.02 (0.57) | 1.02 (0.47) | 1.02 (0.63) | 1.02 (0.61) | 1.02 (0.57) |
| Farmland | 0.96 (−0.34) | 0.96 (−0.03) | 0.95 (−0.42) | 0.96 (−0.35) | 0.96 (−0.33) |
| Livestock | 0.97 (−1.79)+ | 0.97 (−2.06)* | 0.97 (−1.98)* | 0.97 (−2.00)* | 0.97 (−1.92)* |
| House plot owned | 0.66 (−3.98)*** | 0.67 (−3.83)*** | 0.66 (−3.96)*** | 0.66 (−3.93)*** | 0.65 (−4.08)*** |
| Home quality | 0.98 (−1.52) | 0.99 (−1.27) | 0.99 (−1.16) | 0.99 (−1.04)+ | 0.98 (−1.48) |
| Demographic controls Gender | |||||
| Female | 0.74 (−5.35)*** | 0.74 (−5.28)*** | 0.74 (−5.31)*** | 0.75 (−5.23)*** | 0.74 (−5.39)*** |
| Age (Birth cohort) | |||||
| 15–24 (1972–1981) | 3.28 (11.13)*** | 3.38 (11.39)*** | 3.35 (11.30)*** | 3.33 (11.25)*** | 3.29 (11.13)*** |
| 25–34 (1962–1971) | 1.60 (4.62)*** | 1.64 (4.83)*** | 1.63 (4.76)*** | 1.62 (5.11)*** | 1.60 (4.62)*** |
| 35–44 (1952–1961) | 0.93 (−0.70) | 0.96 (−0.38) | 0.95 (−0.46) | 0.96 (−0.45) | 0.93 (−0.70) |
| 45–59 (1936–1951) | – | – | – | – | – |
| Household size | 1.00 (0.35) | 1.01 (0.27) | 1.00 (0.42) | 1.00 (0.44) | 1.00 (0.30) |
| Ethnicity | |||||
| Brahmin/Chhetri | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dalit | 1.23 (1.91)* | 1.18 (2.23) | 1.19 (1.60) | 1.18 (1.54) | 1.22 (1.88)+ |
| Hill Janjati | 1.27 (2.65)** | 1.27 (3.07)** | 1.26 (2.51)** | 1.26 (2.53)** | 1.22 (1.88)+ |
| Newar | 0.80 (−1.73)+ | 0.77 (−1.96)* | 0.78 (−1.89)* | 0.78 (−1.92)* | 0.79 (−1.79)+ |
| Terai Janjati | 0.98 (−0.21) | 0.95 (−0.49) | 0.95 (−0.47) | 0.94 (−0.53) | 0.97 (−0.28) |
| Duration | |||||
| Month | 0.99 (−2.57)** | 0.98 (−2.65)** | 0.99 (−2.61)*** | 0.99 (−2.61)** | 0.99 (−2.59)** |
| Month squared | 1.00 (−0.02) | 1.00 (0.04) | 1.00 (0.00) | 1.00 (0.99) | 1.00 (0.00) |
| Intercept | 0.01 (−19.10)*** | 0.01 (−18.84)*** | 0.01 (−18.61)*** | 0.01 (−18.94)*** | 0.01 (−18.52)*** |
| AIC (Null Model=18160.0)# | 17317.0 | 17326.0 | 17326.0 | 17326.0 | 17322.0 |
| BIC (Null Model=18165.0) # | 17394.0 | 17403.0 | 17403.0 | 17403.0 | 17408.0 |
| −2 log LL (Null Model=18156.0) # | 17265.0 | 17274.0 | 17274.0 | 17274.0 | 17264.0 |
+
P<.10,
*
P<.05,
**
P<.01,
***
P<.001 all probabilities are one-tailed, t-values in parenthesis
#
Smaller values compared to the null model values are considered better.