Table 2.
Hazard ratios and risk score points for the Kaiser Permanente Northwest prediction model
| Variable | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Sex, men | 1.98 (1.90 to 2.30) | 10 |
| Age, yr | ||
| 30–34 | – | 41 |
| 35–39 | – | 39 |
| 40–44 | – | 36 |
| 45–49 | – | 33 |
| 50–54 | – | 31 |
| 55–59 | – | 28 |
| 60–64 | – | 25 |
| 65–69 | – | 23 |
| 70–74 | – | 21 |
| 74–79 | – | 16 |
| 80–84 | – | 9 |
| 85–89 | 0 | |
| eGFR, ml/min per 1.73 m2 | ||
| 59–55 | – | 0 |
| 54–50 | – | 6 |
| 49–45 | – | 13 |
| 44–40 | – | 22 |
| 39–35 | – | 33 |
| 34–30 | – | 46 |
| 29–25 | – | 59 |
| 24–20 | – | 73 |
| 19–15 | – | 86 |
| Proteinuria/albuminuria | 1.61 (1.32–1.96) | 7 |
| Hemoglobin, g/dl | ||
| ≥15.0 | Ref | 0 |
| 14.0–14.9 | 1.17 (1.11 to 1.23) | 2 |
| 13.0–13.9 | 1.37 (1.23 to 1.52) | 5 |
| 12.0–12.9 | 1.61 (1.37 to 1.88) | 7 |
| 11.0–11.9 | 1.88 (1.52 to 2.32) | 10 |
| 10.0–10.9 | 2.20 (1.69 to 2.87) | 12 |
| 9.0–9.9 | 2.58 (1.88 to 3.54) | 14 |
| 8.0–8.9 | 3.02 (2.09 to 4.38) | 17 |
| <8.0 | 3.54 (2.32 to 5.41) | 19 |
| Diabetes | ||
| No diabetes | Ref | 0 |
| Diabetes, no complications | 1.10 (0.77 to 1.56) | 1 |
| Diabetes, one complication | 1.54 (1.21 to 1.97) | 7 |
| Diabetes, two complications | 1.63 (1.30 to 2.04) | 7 |
| Diabetes, three or more complications | 1.93 (1.60 to 2.33) | 10 |
| Systolic BP, mmHg | ||
| <120 | Ref | 0 |
| 120–124 | 1.09 (1.07 to 1.12) | 1 |
| 125–129 | 1.19 (1.14 to 1.25) | 3 |
| 130–134 | 1.31 (1.22 to 1.40) | 4 |
| 134–139 | 1.43 (1.30 to 1.57) | 5 |
| 140–144 | 1.56 (1.39 to 1.76) | 7 |
| 145–149 | 1.71 (1.48 to 1.96) | 8 |
| 150–154 | 1.86 (1.58 to 2.20) | 10 |
| 155–159 | 2.04 (1.69 to 2.46) | 11 |
| ≥160 | 2.23 (1.80 to 2.75) | 12 |
| Antihypertensive medication | 1.50 (1.12 to 2.01) | 6 |
The eight characteristics in the model accounted for 15 degrees of freedom. The prognostic index or linear predictor has a linear relation with the 5-year risk of RRT such that a one-unit increase maps to a constant number of risk score points (on an arbitrary scale). A higher point value on the risk score corresponds to a higher predicted risk of RRT. For an individual patient, providers can add the risk score points presented here to calculate the total risk score points, and then use the cut-points in Supplemental Table 3 to determine the predicted risk. 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; –, age and eGFR were specified using restricted cubic splines, so hazard ratios are not available.