Table 3.

Expected burden of second line by end of each year.

Time (years)	First line ART failure	Hazard rate per 1000 patients	Burden of second line ART = expected first line ART failures per 1000 person going on first line ART	95% confidence interval for expected first line ART failures
End of 1st year	3	0.0168	17	(0, 36)
End of 2nd year	4	0.0225	23	(1, 44)
End of 3rd year	9	0.0712	71	(46, 117)
End of 4th year	14	0.1363	136	(87, 224)
End of 5th year	15	0.1506	151	(76, 227)