Table 4. The results of the sequentially built Negative-Binomial Generalized Linear Models (NB-GLM) with harmonic terms for heat-related hospitalizations (HH) for heatwave episodes in Boston MSA, 1991–2006 based on the proposed definition and four alternative definitions of a heatwave episode.
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
Model 4 |
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Estimate | Std. Error | p-value | Estimate | Std. Error | p-value | Estimate | Std. Error | p-value | |
Proposed Definition | |||||||||
Intercepta | −2.46 | 0.20 | <0.001 | −2.76 | 0.20 | <0.001 | −2.88 | 0.20 | <0.001 |
COS (1st)b | −1.58 | 0.11 | <0.001 | −1.38 | 0.10 | <0.001 | −1.38 | 0.10 | <0.001 |
SIN (1st) | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
COS (2nd) | 0.69 | 0.09 | <0.001 | 0.59 | 0.09 | <0.001 | 0.56 | 0.09 | <0.001 |
SIN (2nd) | 0.46 | 0.10 | <0.001 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
WEEKEND-HDAYc | −0.23 | 0.12 | 0.06 | −0.26 | 0.12 | 0.03 | −0.29 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
HW Episode | 1.93 | 0.18 | <0.001 | ||||||
1st HW | 2.59 | 0.30 | <0.001 | ||||||
Later HW | 1.32 | 0.22 | <0.001 | ||||||
Definition A | |||||||||
HW Episode | 2.26 | 0.14 | <0.001 | ||||||
1st HW | 2.48 | 0.28 | <0.001 | ||||||
Later HW | 2.20 | 0.15 | <0.001 | ||||||
Definition B | |||||||||
HW Episode | 2.52 | 0.19 | <0.001 | ||||||
1st HW | 2.63 | 0.34 | <0.001 | ||||||
Later HW | 2.46 | 0.22 | <0.001 | ||||||
Definition C | |||||||||
HW Episode | 1.70 | 0.15 | <0.001 | ||||||
1st HW | 2.20 | 0.20 | <0.001 | ||||||
Later HW | 1.21 | 0.19 | <0.001 | ||||||
Definition D | |||||||||
HW Episode | 2.84 | 0.44 | <0.001 | ||||||
1st HW | 3.01 | 0.53 | <0.001 | ||||||
Later HW | 2.21 | 0.77 | <0.001 |
aAll models are adjusted for the year effects as described in Method section (data not shown).
bThe sin and cos terms for the first and second harmonics of seasonal components, respectively.
cA term for weekend and holiday effects (WEEKEND-HDAY).