Table 3.
Description and goodness-of-fit results of the abundance models for E. multilocularis in foxes in Zurich
| Model | Description | P | NLL |
|---|---|---|---|
| One zone | |||
| M1 | Constant infection pressure | 2 | 1,882.6 |
| M2 | Decrease in infection pressure and fox age | 3 | 1,881.1 |
| M3 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age | 3 | 1,879.1 |
| M4 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age | 4 | 1,875.3 |
| M5 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and also accounting for parasite-induced immunity | 6 | 1,875.4 |
| Two zones: periurban and suburban (border + urban) | |||
| M6 | Constant infection pressure | 2 | 1,856.1 |
| M7 | Decrease in infection pressure and fox age | 4 | 1,852.8 |
| M8 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age | 4 | 1,849.6 |
| M9 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age in both zones | 6 | 1,844.3 |
| M10 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age only in periurban zone | 5 | 1,845.0 |
| M11 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure in both zones and only in the periurban area decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and parasite-induced immunity | 7 | 1,844.7 |
| M12 | As M10, but μ a was fixed as 8.6 | 4 | 1,847.0 |
| Three zones: periurban, border and urban | |||
| M13 | Constant infection pressure | 2 | 1,844.4 |
| M14 | Decrease in infection pressure and fox age | 5 | 1,840.2 |
| M15 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age | 5 | 1,837.1 |
| M16 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age in all three zones | 8 | 1,831.8 |
| M17 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus a decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age only in periurban zone | 6 | 1,832.1 |
| M18 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age plus parasite-induced immunity in all three zones | 7 | 1,836.6 |
| M19 | Periodic relationship between infection pressure and fox age in all zones and only in the periurban area decreasing infection pressure with increasing fox age and parasite-induced immunity | 8 | 1,835.1 |
| M20 | As M17, but μ a was fixed as 8.6 | 5 | 1,833.4 |
aParasite death rate (μ)
Abbreviations: P model parameters, NLL negative log-likelihood values