Table 3.
Characteristics of individuals with low predicted 4-year mortality risk by classic vs. enhanced models
| Low riska | Not low risk (n = 4327) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both models (n = 1663) | Only classic model (n = 89) | Only enhanced model (n = 222) | ||
| Predicted risk, mean (SD) | ||||
| Classic Modelb | 2.3 (0.8) | 3.5 (0.3) | 4.7 (0.4) | 17.0 (15.0) |
| Enhanced Modelc | 2.2 (0.8) | 4.6 (0.5) | 3.6 (0.3) | 17.1 (15.3) |
| Observed deaths, % (n) | 1.0 (17) | 5.0 (5) | 1.8 (4) | 16.6 (717) |
| Sociodemographics, % (n) | ||||
| Age in years: | ||||
| 50–59 | 55.2 (918) | 33.7 (30) | 12.2 (27) | 5.2 (223) |
| 60–64 | 23.1 (384) | 33.7 (30) | 22.1 (49) | 7.8 (339) |
| 65–69 | 12.9 (214) | 7.9 (7) | 51.4 (114) | 20.3 (877) |
| 70–74 | 8.8 (147) | 24.7 (22) | 5.4 (12) | 22.9 (993) |
| 75–79 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 9.0 (20) | 20.1 (868) |
| 80–84 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 12.8 (556) |
| ≥ 85 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 10.9 (461) |
| Female | 76.8 (1278) | 65.2 (58) | 68.0 (151) | 52.8 (2286) |
| Race: | ||||
| White | 82.3 (1369) | 85.4 (76) | 85.6 (190) | 84.7 (3666) |
| Black | 13.5 (225) | 7.9 (7) | 13.5 (30) | 13.2 (571) |
| Other | 4.1 (69) | 6.7 (6) | 0.9 (2) | 2.1 (90) |
| Hispanic | 11.7 (195) | 16.9 (15) | 6.8 (15) | 7.8 (339) |
| Married | 70.2 (1168) | 61.8 (55) | 64.0 (142) | 56.4 (2440) |
| Education: | ||||
| High school degree | 29.8 (496) | 32.6 (29) | 28.8 (64) | 32.8 (1418) |
| College or above | 55.7 (926) | 37.1 (33) | 54.5 (121) | 38.4 (1663) |
| Total household incomed: | ||||
| 1st quartile | 12.6 (210) | 22.5 (20) | 16.2 (36) | 28.0 (1211) |
| 2nd quartile | 18.3 (304) | 28.1 (25) | 27.9 (62) | 30.1 (1302) |
| 3rd quartile | 27.6 (459) | 22.5 (20) | 20.7 (46) | 24.5 (1060) |
| 4th quartile | 41.5 (690) | 27.0 (24) | 35.1 (78) | 17.4 (754) |
| Has health insurance | 90.5 (1505) | 88.8 (79) | 95.9 (213) | 97.8 (4231) |
| Health conditions, % (n) | ||||
| Diabetes mellitus | 6.9 (115) | 9.0 (8) | 18.9 (42) | 27.5 (1188) |
| Hypertension | 46.8 (778) | 58.4 (52) | 57.7 (128) | 66.6 (2881) |
| Heart disease | 10.3 (171) | 18.0 (16) | 20.7 (46) | 34.0 (1472) |
| Heart failure | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 5.6 (241) |
| Stroke | 2.0 (33) | 2.2 (2) | 2.7 (6) | 8.9 (386) |
| Cancer | 4.3 (71) | 3.4 (3) | 17.6 (39) | 20.7 (895) |
| Lung disease | 1.4 (24) | 10.1 (9) | 5.9 (13) | 16.0 (692) |
| Arthritis | 50.4 (838) | 62.9 (56) | 65.8 (146) | 69.9 (3025) |
| Psychiatric problems | 16.5 (16.5) | 24.7 (22) | 14.9 (33) | 17.7 (768) |
| BMI <25 kg/m2 | 12.5 (208) | 12.4 (11) | 18.9 (42) | 25.0 (1080) |
| Functional impairments, n (%) | ||||
| Problems with memory | 1.1 (18) | 0 (0) | 0.5 (1) | 4.1 (176) |
| Urinary incontinence | 21.3 (354) | 27.0 (24) | 20.7 (46) | 27.2 (1175) |
| Difficulty with ADL: | ||||
| Walking across room | 0.5 (8) | 0 (0) | 0.5 (1) | 8.9 (387) |
| Bathing | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 8.0 (345) |
| Dressing | 1.7 (28) | 5.6 (5) | 1.4 (3) | 11.5 (497) |
| Eating | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0.5 (1) | 3.3 (141) |
| Transferring in or out of bed | 1.1 (19) | 4.5 (4) | 3.2 (7) | 6.6 (286) |
| Toileting | 0.7 (11) | 2.2 (2) | 0.9 (2) | 6.3 (272) |
| Difficulty with IADL: | ||||
| Using the telephone | 0.4 (6) | 3.4 (3) | 0 (0) | 4.0 (171) |
| Managing finances | 0.5 (8) | 1.1 (1) | 1.4 (3) | 5.6 (243) |
| Shopping for groceries | 0.7 (12) | 3.4 (3) | 1.8 (4) | 10.4 (452) |
| Managing medications | 0.6 (10) | 4.5 (4) | 0.9 (2) | 3.4 (148) |
| Preparing meals | 0.2 (3) | 2.2 (2) | 0.9 (2) | 6.2 (270) |
| Other functional difficulties: | ||||
| Walking several blocks | 3.8 (63) | 13.5 (12) | 15.3 (34) | 42.1 (1822) |
| Climbing stairs | 29.3 (487) | 42.7 (38) | 27.9 (62) | 47.4 (2049) |
| Push or pull large object | 27.0 (449) | 41.6 (37) | 34.2 (76) | 50.2 (2172) |
| Getting up from chair | 10.8 (180) | 23.6 (21) | 12.2 (27) | 29.7 (1287) |
| Health behaviors, % (n) | ||||
| Vigorous activitye | 29.2 (485) | 13.5 (12) | 23.0 (51) | 17.2 (743) |
| Moderate activitye | 53.2 (884) | 42.7 (38) | 53.2 (118) | 37.3 (1614) |
| Current smoker | 7.5 (124) | 16.9 (15) | 9.9 (22) | 14.8 (641) |
ADL= basic activities of daily living, IADL= instrumental activities of daily living, SD = standard deviation, BMI= body mass index
aDefined as predicted 4-year mortality risk of 4% or less
bIncludes all risk factors from model developed by Lee et al. [3]
cIncludes all risk factors from model developed by Lee et al. [3], and control belief variables in quartiles (perceived constraints, perceived mastery, and health-specific control)
dQuartiles based on distribution of incomes from all individuals who responded in 2008
eLevel of activity as specified, occurring more than once a week