TABLE 1.
Assumption Values, Including High and Low Estimates of Each Model Parameter Used in Sensitivity Analysis, and Source
| Parameter | Average Value, % | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facility births | 42.9 | 14%–90% | Montagu et al22 |
| PMTCT utilization | UNAIDS Global Report 2013 | ||
| Highly effective regimen | 63 | 7%–95% | |
| None | 37 | ||
| HIV transmission rates | Working Paper on Mother-to- Child HIV Transmission Rates for use in Spectrum 2011 | ||
| Highly effective regimen | 5.6 | ||
| Slightly effective regimen | 30.3 | ||
| None | 40.3 | ||
| Timing of transmission without PMTCT* | Cavarelli et al23 | ||
| Peripartum (in-utero and intrapartum) | 70 | ||
| Postpartum | 30 | ||
| Timing of transmission with PMTCT | Kesho Bora Study Group 2011 | ||
| Peripartum (in-utero and intrapartum) | 57 | ||
| Postpartum | 43 | ||
| At birth survival | Chen et al24 | ||
| Baseline for HIV+ infants | 96 | ||
| On PMTCT therapy | 94 | ||
| HIV testing rate | WHO Vaccine Preventable Disease Monitoring System 2012; UNAIDS Global Report 2013 | ||
| Newborn testing | 80 | 78%–86% | |
| 6-wk testing | 39 | 3%–95% | |
| HIV DNA PCR test sensitivity | Lilian et al12; Neilsen-Saines et al25; Burgard et al26; and Shapiro et al27 | ||
| Newborn testing | 60 | 50%–70% | |
| 6-wk testing | 100 | ||
| Return of test eesults | WHO Vaccine Preventable Disease Monitoring System 2012; estimated range of ±15%; Ciaranello et al19; Anoje et al28; Coulibaly et al16; Hsiao et al29; Hassan et al30; and Motswere- Chirwa et al31 | ||
| Newborn testing | 71 | 56%–86% | |
| 6-wk testing | 52 | 45%–99% | |
| Enrollment into care | 52 | 30%–78% | Ciaranello et al19; Coulibaly et al16; and Motswere-Chirwa et al31 |
| Initiation of ART | 54 | 38%–77% | Ciaranello et al19; Braun et al14; Motswere-Chirwa et al31; and Innes et al17 |
| Treatment within 3 mo of life | Braun et al14;Motswere-Chirwa et al31; and Innes et al17 | ||
| Newborn testing | 37.5 | ||
| 6-wk testing | 8 | ||
| Treatment within 6 mo of life | Braun et al14; Motswere-Chirwa31; and Innes et al17 | ||
| Newborn testing | 59 | ||
| 6-wk testing | 54 | ||
| Treatment within 12 mo of life | Braun et al14; Motswere-Chirwa et al31; and Innes et al17 | ||
| Newborn testing | 80 | ||
| 6-wk testing | 75 | ||
| Postpartum transmission timing | Nduati et al32 | ||
| within 6 wk | 63 | ||
| within 9 mo | 81 | ||
| within 18 mo | 100 | ||
| 1 yr mortality | Marston et al51; and Violari et al5 | ||
| Peripartum no treatment | 48 | ||
| Postpartum no treatment | 24 | ||
| On delayed treatment | 16 | ||
| On treatment by 3 mo | 4 |
*
PMTCT defined as WHO Option A or B.