Table 3.

Performance of each mortality prediction system for all patients

Prognostic score	ROC curve		Goodness-of-fit H-test		Predicted mortality (mean ± SD)	SMR (CI 95%)
	AUROC ± SE	95% CI	χ2	P
SAPS II	0.916 ± 0.009	0.899–0.933	29.400	<0.001	24.4 ± 29.2	1.17 (1.03–1.34)
APACHE III	0.915 ± 0.009	0.898–0.933	117.206	<0.001	20.3 ± 28.2	1.41 (1.23–1.62)
MPM II24	0.909 ± 0.009	0.891–0.926	114.713	<0.001	19.1 ± 23.4	1.50 (1.30–1.73)
CMM	0.892 ± 0.011	0.871–0.913	517.662	<0.001	55.9 ± 27.5	0.51 (0.46–0.57)
APACHE II	0.888 ± 0.010	0.868–0.907	78.181	<0.001	20.4 ± 23.0	1.41 (1.22–1.62)
MPM II0	0.854 ± 0.012	0.830–0.878	373.317	<0.001	13.5 ± 18.7	2.12 (1.80–2.50)

Shown are area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs), Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H statistics, and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for individual mortality prediction models (degrees of freedom = 8). A total of 1257 patients were included. The observed hospital mortality was 28.6%. APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; AUROC, area under receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; CMM, Cancer Mortality Model; MPM, Mortality Probability Model; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score; SD, standard deviation; SE, standard error; SMR, standardized mortality rate.