Table 2. Actual and Predicted Health Outcomes, Sri Lanka 1982–2002.
| Indicator | Actual Outcome | Counterfactual Outcomes | Trend | Interpretation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Based on 5-yr. trend | Based on 10-yr. trend | 5 yr. pre-conflict average annual change | 10-y.r pre-conflict average annual change | Ave. annual change during conflict | ||||||
| 1982 Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 live births | 34.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | Improvements in IMR slowed during war. Absolute outcomes are worse than expected given pre-war trends. | |||||
| 2000 Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 live births | 19.30 | 16.32 | 18.06 | |||||||
| 2002 Infant Mortality Rate per 1,000 live births | 18.20 | 15.04 | 16.83 | |||||||
| 1982 Maternal Mortality Ratio per 1,000 live births | 0.60 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.04 | Improvement in maternal mortality slowed during the war. Outcome is inconclusive. | |||||
| 2002 Maternal Mortality Ratio per 1,000 live births | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.20 | |||||||
Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka; Ministry of Health and Nutrition (multiple years); World Bank 2013