Fig. 13.

Validating forecasts from 1991 to 2011, given data from 1965 to 1990, of our model (blue), the LC model (red), its coherent variant (dark blue), the P-spline method (magenta), and of the UN Bayesian approach (green) for British (left) and Danish (right) women. Observed life expectancy (e ₀) is represented by black squares, the median forecasts by white circles, and the 95% prediction intervals by the vertical lines. We combine the mortality trends of Danish and Swedish women in our model as well as in the coherent LC model