Fig. 5.

Observed (black line) and forecasted life expectancy at birth (e ₀) of our model (blue), the P-spline approach (magenta), the LC model (red), four of its variants—h0 (light red), h1 (yellow), h2 (green), and coherent (navy blue)—the UN Bayesian approach (triangles), and of Eurostat (squares) for women in the UK (left) and Denmark (right). The forecasts from 2012 to 2050 rely on data from 1965 to 2011 (green vertical lines). We combine mortality trends of Danish, Swedish, French, Italian, and Japanese women in our model as well as in the coherent LC model. In the RH models, (p) and (g) denote Poisson and Gaussian errors, respectively