Table 2. Numbers* of cervical cancer cases, deaths and colposcopies predicted in a year under a range of screening scenarios for unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination at age 12 years**.
| Unvaccinated cohorts | ||||||
| # cancer cases | # cancer deaths | # precancer treatments | # colposcopies | # colposcopies required to avert a cancer case (# required to avert a cancer death) compared to 12-month follow-up | # precancer treatments required to avert a cancer case (# required to avert a cancer death) compared to 12-month follow-up | |
| Pre-renewed NCSP (current practice) | 850 | 227 | 22,700 | 85,800 | - | - |
| 12m follow-up | 584 (-265; -31%) | 145 (-82;-36%) | 24,000 (+1,300; 6%) | 116,900 (+31,100; 36%) | - | - |
| Immediate colposcopy | 574 (-275; -32%) | 142 (-85; -37%) | 24,500 (+1,800; 8%) | 123,600 (+37,800; 44%) | 653 (2337) | 55 (195) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 35, Immediate colposcopy if aged 35+ | 577 (-272; -32%) | 143 (-84; -37%) | 24,100 (+1,400; 6%) | 120,100 (+34,300; 40%) | 451 (1487) | 22 (73) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 45, immediate colposcopy if aged 45+ | 581 (-269; -32%) | 144 (-84; -37%) | 24,000 (+1,300; 6%) | 118,500 (+32,700; 38%) | 414 (1195) | 14 (41) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 55, immediate colposcopy if aged 55+ | 583 (-267; -31%) | 144 (-83; -37%) | 24,000 (+1,300; 6%) | 117,700 (+31,900; 37%) | 401 (1066) | 12 (32) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 65, immediate colposcopy if aged 65+ | 584 (-266; -31%) | 145 (-82; -36%) | 24,000 (+1,300; 6%) | 117,100 (+31,300; 36%) | 341 (901) | 12 (32) |
| Cohorts offered vaccination at age 12 years | ||||||
| # cancer cases | # cancer deaths | # precancer treatments | # colposcopies | # colposcopies required to avert a cancer case (# required to avert a cancer death) compared to 12 month follow-up | # precancer treatments required to avert a cancer case (# required to avert a cancer death) compared to 12 month follow-up | |
| Pre-renewed NCSP (current practice) | 353 | 94 | 13,900 | 61,000 | - | - |
| 12m follow-up | 267 (-85; -24%) | 66 (-28; -29%) | 13,200 (-700; -5%) | 56,500 (4,500; -7%) | - | - |
| Immediate colposcopy | 256 (-97; -27%) | 63 (-31; -33%) | 13,900 (0; 0%) | 64,300 (3,300;5%) | 684 (2452) | 59 (211) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 35, Immediate colposcopy if aged 35+ | 259 (-93; -26%) | 64 (-30; -32%) | 13,400 (-500; -3%) | 60000 (-1,000; -2%) | 451 (1482) | 22 (74) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 45, immediate colposcopy if aged 45+ | 263 (-90; -25%) | 65 (-29; -31%) | 13,300 (-600; -4%) | 58200 (-2,800; -5%) | 413 (1191) | 14 (41) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 55, immediate colposcopy if aged 55+ | 265 (-88; -25%) | 65 (-28; -30%) | 13,300 (-600; -5%) | 57400 (-3,600; -6%) | 399 (1059) | 12 (32) |
| 12m follow-up for women less than age 65, immediate colposcopy if aged 65+ | 267 (-86; -24%) | 66 (-28; -30%) | 13,200 (-700; -5%) | 56700 (-4,300; -7%) | 340 (888) | 12 (32) |
*Case numbers derived by applying predicted age-specific rates to the projected Australian female population for 2017.[63].
**Numbers in parentheses represent. the difference in case numbers and percentage difference compared to the pre-renewed NCSP.