Table 5.
NHS | NHS II | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. cases/person-years | Multivariate-adjusted HR3 (95% CI) | Multivariate adjusted HR3 + current BMI4 (95% CI) | No. cases/person-years | Multivariate-adjusted HR3 (95% CI) | Multivariate adjusted HR3 + current BMI4 (95% CI) | |
Body fatness1 at age 5, Level | ||||||
1 | 236 / 321,965 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 28 / 409,534 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
2 | 145 / 187,983 | 1.08 (0.87-1.33) | 1.06 (0.85-1.30) | 48 / 543,662 | 1.44 (0.90-2.31) | 1.39 (0.87-2.22) |
3 | 89 / 144,263 | 0.89 (0.70-1.14) | 0.80 (0.62-1.02) | 47 / 409,546 | 1.73 (1.08-2.77) | 1.45 (0.90-2.33) |
4 | 70 / 87,130 | 1.11 (0.86-1.47) | 0.92 (0.70-1.20) | 25 / 216,892 | 1.65 (0.95-2.84) | 1.20 (0.70-2.08) |
5+ | 50 / 61,578 | 1.13 (0.83-1.54) | 0.85 (0.62-1.17) | 19 / 115,273 | 2.02 (1.12-3.64) | 1.27 (0.69-2.34) |
P trend | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.55 | ||
P interaction6 | 0.03 | |||||
Body fatness1 at age 10, Level | ||||||
1 | 169 / 243,447 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 21 / 310,967 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
2 | 160 / 212,542 | 1.12 (0.90-1.39) | 1.06 (0.85-1.31) | 36 / 523,851 | 1.14 (0.66-1.96) | 1.04 (0.60-1.78) |
3 | 101 / 144,897 | 1.07 (0.83-1.37) | 0.91 (0.71-1.17) | 46 / 387,750 | 1.88 (1.11-3.15) | 1.43 (0.85-2.42) |
4 | 74 / 105,684 | 1.07 (0.81-1.41) | 0.82 (0.62-1.09) | 26 / 268,800 | 1.42 (0.79-2.53) | 0.94 (0.52-1.70) |
5+ | 86 / 96,349 | 1.36 (1.04-1.77) | 0.97 (0.74-1.28) | 38 / 203,538 | 2.34 (1.36-4.03) | 1.34 (0.76-2.36) |
P trend | 0.07 | 0.32 | 0.001 | 0.43 | ||
P interaction6 | 0.01 | |||||
Body fatness1 at age 20, Level | ||||||
1-2 | 226 / 325,929 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 44 / 513,813 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
3 | 183 / 271,833 | 1.02 (0.83-1.24) | 0.89 (0.73-1.08) | 39 / 644,085 | 0.76 (0.49-1.17) | 0.61 (0.39-0.95) |
4 | 112 / 138,461 | 1.20 (0.96-1.51) | 0.91 (0.72-1.15) | 46 / 353,744 | 1.57 (1.03-2.38) | 1.00 (0.64-1.55) |
5+ | 69 / 66,695 | 1.43 (1.08-1.88) | 0.89 (0.67-1.20) | 38 / 183,263 | 2.15 (1.36-3.40) | 0.93 (0.55-1.59) |
P trend | 0.01 | 0.36 | <0.001 | 0.75 | ||
P interaction6 | 0.01 | |||||
Average childhood body fatness (ages 5 – 10)2, Level | ||||||
1-2 | 327 / 452,126 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 54 / 810,829 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
2.5-3 | 117 / 159,702 | 1.05 (0.85-1.30) | 0.93 (0.75-1.16) | 51 / 430,074 | 1.77 (1.21-2.61) | 1.48 (1.00-2.18) |
3.5-4.5 | 96 / 134,150 | 1.03 (0.82-1.30) | 0.84 (0.66-1.05) | 42 / 349,457 | 1.62 (1.08-2.44) | 1.13 (0.74-1.72) |
5+ | 50 / 56,941 | 1.25 (0.93-1.69) | 0.90 (0.66-1.22) | 20 / 104,545 | 2.19 (1.30-3.69) | 1.29 (0.75-2.23) |
P trend | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.001 | 0.43 | ||
P interaction6 | 0.01 | |||||
Average adolescent body fatness (ages 10 – 20)2, Level | ||||||
1-2 | 223 / 325,593 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 38 / 490,419 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
2.5-3 | 168 / 236,570 | 1.07 (0.88-1.32) | 0.96 (0.78-1.18) | 40 / 594,805 | 0.95 (0.61-1.48) | 0.79 (0.50-1.24) |
3.5-4.5 | 148 / 193,645 | 1.18 (0.95-1.45) | 0.90 (0.73-1.12) | 63 / 504,038 | 1.62 (1.08-2.45) | 1.01 (0.65-1.57) |
5+ | 51 / 47,111 | 1.56 (1.14-2.13) | 0.97 (0.70-1.33) | 26 / 105,643 | 2.44 (1.45-4.12) | 1.09 (0.61-1.94) |
P trend | 0.01 | 0.49 | <0.001 | 0.62 | ||
P interaction6 | 0.01 | |||||
Recent BMI, kg/m2 | ||||||
≤ 24.9 | 190 / 381,392 | 1.00 | N/A5 | 52 / 942,295 | 1.00 | N/A5 |
25.0-29.9 | 168 / 260,339 | 1.26 (1.02-1.56) | 34 / 419,079 | 1.17 (0.75-1.81) | ||
30.0-34.9 | 121 / 107,586 | 2.18 (1.71-2.78) | 29 / 187,606 | 2.00 (1.25-3.20) | ||
≥35.0 | 111 / 53,602 | 4.14 (3.18-5.39) | 52 / 145,926 | 3.95 (2.55-6.11) | ||
P trend | < 0.001 | <0.001 | ||||
P interaction6 | 0.001 |
Participants were asked to recall their body fatness at ages 5, 10, and 20, using a nine-level drawing (Figure 1), where Level 1 corresponds to the leanest and Level 9 the most overweight.
Average childhood and adolescent body fatness were the average of the levels at ages 5 and 10, and ages 10 and 20 respectively.
Adjusted for pack-years of smoking [0,>0-20,>20-40,>40] –NHS; [never, past, current – NHS II], oral contraceptive use [never, <3 years, 3-5 years, > 5years], HT use [premenopausal, post-menopausal – never; postmenopausal – past; post-menopausal current – estrogen only; postmenopausal current – estrogen + progesterone - NHS]; postmenopausal status [pre/post], postmenopausal hormone use [never/ever estrogen; never/ever estrogen + progesterone; never/ever other] – NHS II, age at menopause [premenopausal/unknown, < 45 years, 45-< 47 years, 47 - <49 years, 49- <51, 51- <53 years, 53+ years], family history of colon/rectal cancer, family history of endometrial cancer, height (inches; continuous), parity and age at last birth [Nulliparous, 1-2 & <30 yrs, 1-2 & ≥ 30 yrs, 3-4 & < 30 yrs, 3-4 & ≥ 30 yrs, ≥ 5 children], physical activity [adolescent & age 20 models: <21, 21-<36, 36-<53, 54-<81, 81+; current BMI model: <3, 3-<9, 9-<18, 18-<27, 27+ METS/week]
BMI: body mass index
Recent BMI models not adjusted for recent BMI.
Wald test for heterogeneity between cohorts by body size (examined in base multivariate model).