Table 3.
The reproduction number R of 15 influenza outbreaks in Changsha city, China, 2005–2013 (n = 15)
| Outbreak ID | Epidemic model (Tc = 2·7) | Normal distribution (Tc = 2·7, σ = 1·1) | Delta distribution (Tc = 2·7) | Epidemic model (Tc = 2·9) | Normal distribution (Tc = 2·9, σ = 1·4) | Delta distribution (Tc = 2·9) | Gamma distribution Gamma(4·2,0·68) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | R | 95% CI | |
| 1 | 2·87 | 2·53–3·22 | 4·86 | 3·79–6·10 | 6·50 | 4·60–9·18 | 3·01 | 2·64–3·38 | 5·58 | 4·24–7·19 | 7·46 | 5·15–10·81 | 5·06 | 3·92–6·44 |
| 8 | 2·28 | 2·12–2·44 | 3·15 | 2·76–3·57 | 3·61 | 3·07–4·24 | 2·38 | 2·20–2·55 | 3·46 | 3·00–3·97 | 3·96 | 3·33–4·72 | 3·24 | 2·84–3·68 |
| 9 | 2·58 | 2·29–2·87 | 3·95 | 3·16–4·86 | 4·85 | 3·63–6·50 | 2·70 | 2·38–3·01 | 4·43 | 3·48–5·58 | 5·45 | 3·99–7·46 | 4·08 | 3·25–5·06 |
| 10 | 2·33 | 2·13–2·53 | 3·26 | 2·79–3·79 | 3·77 | 3·10–4·60 | 2·43 | 2·22–2·64 | 3·60 | 3·03–4·24 | 4·17 | 3·37–5·15 | 3·36 | 2·87–3·92 |
| 14 | 2·91 | 2·65–3·17 | 4·99 | 4·15–5·92 | 6·75 | 5·21–8·74 | 3·05 | 2·77–3·33 | 5·74 | 4·69–6·95 | 7·77 | 5·88–10·26 | 5·20 | 4·30–6·23 |
| 17 | 3·01 | 2·61–3·41 | 5·32 | 4·02–6·86 | 7·43 | 4·99–11·09 | 3·15 | 2·73–3·58 | 6·18 | 4·53–8·20 | 8·63 | 5·62–13·25 | 5·57 | 4·17–7·31 |
| 21 | 4·11 | 4·03–4·19 | 10·04 | 9·64–10·43 | 22·37 | 20·63–24·26 | 4·34 | 4·25–4·42 | 12·63 | 12·07–13·21 | 28·16 | 25·81–30·72 | 11·34 | 10·80–11·89 |
| 27 | 3·12 | 2·87–3·37 | 5·75 | 4·87–6·71 | 8·35 | 6·51–10·70 | 3·28 | 3·01–3·55 | 6·72 | 5·59–8·00 | 9·77 | 7·48–12·76 | 6·04 | 5·07–7·14 |
| 31 | 3·08 | 2·70–3·45 | 5·58 | 4·32–7·04 | 7·97 | 5·49–11·58 | 3·23 | 2·83–3·63 | 6·50 | 4·90–8·44 | 9·30 | 6·23–13·88 | 5·85 | 4·48–7·52 |
| 38 | 1·48 | 1·32–1·65 | 1·59 | 1·37–1·84 | 1·62 | 1·38–1·91 | 1·52 | 1·35–1·69 | 1·65 | 1·40–1·93 | 1·68 | 1·41–2·00 | 1·62 | 1·39–1·88 |
| 39 | 1·45 | 1·43–1·48 | 1·55 | 1·52–1·58 | 1·57 | 1·54–1·61 | 1·49 | 1·46–1·51 | 1·60 | 1·57–1·64 | 1·63 | 1·59–1·67 | 1·58 | 1·54–1·61 |
| 42 | 3·61 | 3·32–3·90 | 7·72 | 6·50–9·04 | 13·57 | 10·14–18·17 | 3·80 | 3·49–4·11 | 9·36 | 7·71–11·21 | 16·47 | 12·04–22·52 | 8·34 | 6·89–10·00 |
| 43 | 2·12 | 1·81–2·43 | 2·76 | 2·13–3·53 | 3·07 | 2·25–4·18 | 2·20 | 1·87–2·54 | 3·00 | 2·26–3·92 | 3·33 | 2·39–4·65 | 2·84 | 2·18–3·64 |
| 45 | 2·72 | 2·24–3·21 | 4·38 | 3·03–6·07 | 5·60 | 3·44–9·10 | 2·85 | 2·33–3·37 | 4·97 | 3·32–7·15 | 6·36 | 3·77–10·72 | 4·54 | 3·12–6·41 |
| 46 | 2·51 | 2·26–2·76 | 3·74 | 3·09–4·50 | 4·52 | 3·52–5·81 | 2·62 | 2·35–2·89 | 4·19 | 3·39–5·12 | 5·06 | 3·86–6·62 | 3·87 | 3·18–4·67 |
ID, Identification; Tc, mean generation interval; σ, standard deviation; R, reproduction number; CI, confidence interval.