Table 2.
The sensitivity of forest composition to climate change and disturbance. Values are based on iLand simulations and indicate means and standard deviations (SD) over averaged landscape values (i.e. average species shares in the landscape) of all respective scenarios
| Disturbance | Initial state | Baseline climate | Climate change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | Year 100 | Year 1000 | Year 100 | Year 1000 | ||||||
| Mean | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | ||
| A. alba (%) | No | – | 3·3 | 0·0 | 13·1 | 0·0 | 3·6 | 0·1 | 1·3 | 1·0 |
| Yes | 2·9 | 3·4 | 0·1 | 7·8 | 1·8 | 3·6 | 0·2 | 0·9 | 0·8 | |
| C. betulus (%) | No | – | <0·1 | 0·0 | 0·0 | 0·0 | 0·2 | 0·1 | 0·7 | 0·2 |
| Yes | <0·1 | <0·1 | 0·0 | 0·1 | 0·1 | 0·4 | 0·3 | 2·8 | 1·5 | |
| F. sylvatica (%) | No | – | 34·7 | 0·0 | 34·4 | 0·0 | 37·9 | 1·2 | 67·3 | 9·0 |
| Yes | 39·3 | 27·7 | 4·0 | 22·2 | 4·1 | 31·6 | 3·8 | 49·7 | 11·5 | |
| L. decidua (%) | No | – | 12·0 | 0·1 | 7·9 | 0·0 | 12·4 | 0·9 | 2·5 | 0·6 |
| Yes | 10·7 | 12·5 | 0·3 | 8·4 | 0·8 | 13·0 | 1·0 | 4·6 | 1·2 | |
| P. abies (%) | No | – | 43·2 | 0·1 | 21·5 | 0·1 | 36·8 | 0·7 | 2·2 | 0·2 |
| Yes | 38·5 | 39·8 | 3·0 | 18·2 | 2·2 | 32·7 | 3·1 | 2·7 | 0·2 | |
| Q. petraea (%) | No | – | 0·1 | 0·0 | 0·9 | 0·0 | 0·4 | 0·2 | 16·3 | 7·1 |
| Yes | <0·1 | 0·1 | 0·0 | 0·7 | 0·1 | 0·6 | 0·3 | 15·8 | 5·9 | |
| Q. robur (%) | No | – | 0·1 | 0·0 | 0·5 | 0·0 | 0·3 | 0·1 | 4·6 | 1·3 |
| Yes | <0·1 | 0·1 | 0·0 | 0·5 | 0·0 | 0·4 | 0·2 | 6·6 | 1·9 | |
| Other tree species (%) | No | – | 6·7 | 0·0 | 21·8 | 0·0 | 8·6 | 0·3 | 5·2 | 0·5 |
| Yes | 8·6 | 16·3 | 7·0 | 42·1 | 8·7 | 17·7 | 6·2 | 16·9 | 6·6 | |