Table 2.

Final posterior and predictive probabilities in 10 signatures

Signature	Estimated pCR Rate (95% Probability Interval)		Probability Neratinib is Superior to Control	Predictive Probability of Success in Phase 3
	Neratinib	Control
ALL	33% (24%–40%)	23% (14% – 33%)	93%	48%
HR+	23% (13% – 33%)	16% (6% – 28%)	81%	40%
HR−	44% (30% – 55%)	31% (17% – 45%)	92%	58%
HER2+	39% (28% – 51%)	23% (8% – 38%)	95%	73%
HER2−	28% (15% – 37%)	24% (13% – 35%)	69%	25%
MP2	48% (30% – 60%)	29% (11% – 48%)	93%	72%
HER2+/HR+	30% (18% – 44%)	17% (3%–32%)	91%	65%
HER2+/HR−	56% (37% – 73%)	33% (11% – 54%)	95%	79%
HER2−/HR+	14% (3% – 25%)	16% (5% – 27%)	42%	14%
HER2−/HR−	38% (22% – 50%)	31% (15% – 46%)	77%	40%