TABLE 3.
Inference table describing the 41 most likely scenarios, out of a total of 144 potential permutations. The outcome of interest was the predicted probability of death from disease
| Probability of case based on training data (%) |
Primary size category (cm) |
Time to LR (months) |
Time to DR (months) |
Predicted probability of death from disease (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.5 | ≤ 5 | No LR | No DR | 0.1 |
| 18.6 | 5–10 | No LR | No DR | 0.4 |
| 14.6 | > 10 | No LR | No DR | 0.7 |
| 2.4 | > 10 | No LR | ≤ 4 | 83.3 |
| 2.3 | > 10 | No LR | 14–28 | 83.9 |
| 2.3 | > 10 | No LR | 9–14 | 85.3 |
| 2.2 | > 10 | No LR | > 28 | 75.0 |
| 2.1 | > 10 | No LR | 4–9 | 84.1 |
| 1.9 | 5–10 | No LR | ≤ 4 | 72.4 |
| 1.8 | 5–10 | No LR | > 28 | 61.2 |
| 1.8 | 5–10 | No LR | 14–28 | 73.3 |
| 1.8 | 5–10 | No LR | 9–14 | 75.4 |
| 1.6 | 5–10 | No LR | 4–9 | 73.5 |
| 1.4 | ≤ 5 | No LR | > 28 | 35.8 |
| 1.3 | ≤ 5 | No LR | ≤ 4 | 48.1 |
| 1.2 | ≤ 5 | No LR | 14–28 | 49.3 |
| 1.2 | ≤ 5 | No LR | 9–14 | 52.0 |
| 1.1 | ≤ 5 | No LR | 4–9 | 49.5 |
| 0.8 | ≤ 5 | 18–37 | No DR | 0.2 |
| 0.7 | ≤ 5 | > 37 | No DR | 0.2 |
| 0.6 | 5–10 | 18–37 | No DR | 0.6 |
| 0.6 | 5–10 | > 37 | No DR | 0.6 |
| 0.5 | ≤ 5 | ≤ 5 | No DR | 0.6 |
| 0.5 | > 10 | 18–37 | No DR | 1.2 |
| 0.4 | > 10 | > 37 | No DR | 1.1 |
| 0.4 | > 10 | > 37 | No DR | 1.1 |
| 0.4 | ≤ 5 | 11–18 | No DR | 0.9 |
| 0.4 | 5–10 | ≤ 5 | No DR | 1.7 |
| 0.4 | ≤ 5 | 5–11 | No DR | 1.0 |
| 0.3 | 5–10 | 11–18 | No DR | 2.5 |
| 0.3 | > 10 | ≤ 5 | No DR | 3.1 |
| 0.3 | 5–10 | 5–11 | No DR | 2.7 |
| 0.3 | > 10 | 11–18 | No DR | 4.7 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 11–18 | ≤ 4 | 97.1 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 11–18 | 9–14 | 97.5 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 11–18 | 14–28 | 97.2 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 5–11 | No DR | 5.0 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 5–11 | ≤ 4 | 97.3 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 5–11 | 9–14 | 97.7 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 5–11 | 14–28 | 97.4 |
| 0.2 | > 10 | 5–11 | No DR | 5.0 |
LR = local recurrence; DR = distant recurrence