Table 3.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Criteria A, B, and C for Identifying 1‐Year Outcomes

	Criteria A: Sensitivity, Specificitya	Criteria B: Sensitivity, Specificity	Criteria C: Sensitivity, Specificity	Top 5% Predicted By, Hierarchical Condition Categories
Hospitalization	0.53, 0.79	0.32, 0.91	0.15, 0.97	0.19, 0.98
Top 5% Medicare spending	0.66, 0.75	0.44, 0.89	0.25, 0.95	0.39, 0.97
Died	0.73, 0.75	0.51, 0.89	0.30, 0.96	0.32, 0.96

^aSensitivity = true positive/(true positive + false negative); specificity = true negative/(true negative + false positive) for identifying those beneficiaries at risk for hospitalization, being among the costliest 5% of Medicare beneficiaries, and death in the following year.