Table 2.
Growth models. 2009–2014 alcohol-related recorded violent crime rate (per 1000 people)
| Parameter | Unadjusted (SE) | Adjusted 1 (SE) | Adjusted 2 (SE) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | |
| Baseline (year 2009) | 1.592 (0.046) | 1.314 (0.077) | 1.368 (0.117) | |||
| Trend (2009–2014) | −0.171 (0.009) | 0.015 (0.001) | −0.171 (0.009) | 0.015 (0.001) | −0.177 (0.025) | 0.015 (0.002) |
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
| Effect on intercept | ||||||
| No policy | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
| Low policy | −0.195 (0.089) | −0.229 (0.079) | −0.208 (0.079) | |||
| Medium | 0.147 (0.071) | 0.074 (0.063) | 0.114 (0.064) | |||
| High policy | 0.557 (0.085) | 0.302 (0.079) | 0.407 (0.085) | |||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | ||||
| Deprivation at baseline | 3.031 (0.275) | 4.375 (0.461) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Population at baseline | −0.042 (0.016) | −0.171 (0.027) | ||||
| p=0.010 | p=0.035 | |||||
| Outlet density at baseline | 0.004 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p=0.082 | |||||
| Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | −0.002 (0.001) | −0.002 (0.001) | ||||
| p=0.001 | p=0.010 | |||||
| Effects on slope | ||||||
| Low policy | 0.103 (0.017) | −0.009 (0.001) | 0.103 (0.015) | −0.009 (0.001) | 0.097 (0.017) | −0.008 (0.001) |
| Medium | 0.032 (0.013) | −0.004 (0.001) | 0.032 (0.013) | −0.004 (0.001) | −0.020 (0.014) | −0.003 (0.001) |
| High policy | −0.047 (0.016) | 0.004 (0.001) | −0.047 (0.016) | 0.004 (0.001) | −0.078 (0.018) | 0.006 (0.002) |
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
| Deprivation | −0.721 (0.098) | 0.080 (0.008) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Population at baseline | 0.050 (0.006) | −0.005 (0.000) | ||||
| p=0.401 | p=0.897 | |||||
| Outlet density at baseline | 0.001 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | 0.000 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
| p=0.094 | p=0.025 | |||||
| Variance | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† |
| Intercept | 0.209 | 13% | 0.158 | 34% | 0.157 | 34% |
| Slope | 0.003 | 1% | 0.003 | 1% | 0.003 | 2% |
| Residual | 0.010 | 1% | 0.010 | 1% | 0.010 | 3% |
| R2 | 94.6% | 94.6% | 94.7% | |||
Bold indicates p<0.05.
All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).
†Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).