Table 3.
Growth models. 2009–2014 alcohol-related recorded sex crime rate (per 1000 people)
| Parameter | Unadjusted (SE) | Adjusted 1 (SE) | Adjusted 2 (SE) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | Linear trend | Quadratic trend | |
| Baseline (year 2009) | −2.136 (0.051) | −2.476 (0.074) | −1.881 (0.136) | |||
| Trend (2009–2014) | −0.144 (0.013) | 0.020 (0.001) | −0.144 (0.013) | 0.020 (0.001) | −0.388 (0.037) | 0.043 (0.003) |
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
| Effect on intercept | ||||||
| No policy | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||
| Low policy | −0.185 (0.100) | −0.218 (0.093) | −0.167 (0.092) | |||
| Medium | 0.116 (0.079) | 0.043 (0.074) | 0.149 (0.075) | |||
| High policy | 0.481 (0.095) | 0.245 (0.091) | 0.488 (0.099) | |||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | ||||
| Deprivation at baseline | 2.361 (0.240) | 3.074 (0.535) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Population at baseline | −0.013 (0.014) | −0.204 (0.032) | ||||
| p=0.373 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Outlet density at baseline | 0.003 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p=0.104 | |||||
| Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | −0.001 (0.000) | −0.004 (0.001) | ||||
| p=0.101 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Effects on slope | ||||||
| Low policy | 0.095 (0.025) | −0.008 (0.025) | 0.095 (0.023) | −0.008 (0.002) | 0.078 (0.025) | −0.007 (0.002) |
| Medium | 0.034 (0.020) | −0.004 (0.002) | 0.034 (0.020) | −0.004 (0.002) | −0.003 (0.020) | −0.001 (0.002) |
| High policy | −0.048 (0.024) | 0.004 (0.002) | −0.048 (0.024) | 0.004 (0.002) | −0.136 (0.027) | 0.012 (0.002) |
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |
| Deprivation at baseline | −0.319 (0.146) | 0.032 (0.014) | ||||
| p=0.029 | p=0.019 | |||||
| Population at baseline | 0.062 (0.087) | −0.005 (0.001) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Outlet density at baseline | 0.001 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
| p=0.060 | p=0.011 | |||||
| Alcohol-related hospital admissions at baseline | 0.001 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.000) | ||||
| p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||||
| Variance | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† | Estimates | Explained† |
| Intercept | 0.218 | 9% | 0.178 | 25% | 0.172 | 28% |
| Slope | 0.003 | 0.3% | 0.003 | 0.3% | 0.003 | 5% |
| Residual | 0.028 | 0.4% | 0.028 | 0.4% | 0.028 | 1.5% |
| R2 | 84.1% | 84.1% | 84.3% | |||
Bold indicates p<0.05.
All models also adjusted for quarter (ie, 3-month period).
†Explained variance relative to model without explanatory variables (ie, only time trends as fixed effects).