Table 2.

Simulation truth p_i under four alternative scenarios

scenario	good	intermediate	poor
Ni	6, 6, 8	40, 40, 30, 20, 20,10	7, 7, 6
S0	.59,.55,.47	.45,.4,.36,.34,.3,.26	.23,.19,.17
S1	.28,.26,.24	.18,.16,.15,.17,.2,.19	.12,.13,.1
S2	.28,.26,.18	.24,.16,.15,.17,.10,.19	.12,.20,.10
S3	.30,.40,.15	.20,.10,.30,.20,.15,.12	.15,.40,.30