Table 5. Impact of PCV and Hib vaccination on a birth cohort of 122,747, the number of babies born in Beijing in 2012 [1], assuming %Pneumonia to be 26.9% at age 3.

We used the Lucero value for VE_PCV, 27% (15%, 36%) [63] and the Theodoratou value for VE_Hib, 18% (-2%, 33%) [13]. Potential pneumonia reductions are given for both wholly unvaccinated and vaccinated populations as we have estimated for Beijing.

Vaccine	% Vaccinated	NT,u	Vaccination reduces to %Pneumonia from 26.9% this %.a (95% CI)	This many fewer children get pneumonia (95% CI)
PCV	0	122,747	19.6 (22.9, 17.2)	8915 (4953, 11887)
Hib	0	122,747	22.1 (26.9, 21.7)	5943 (0, 10896)
PCV+Hib	0	122,747	14.8 (22.9, 12.1)	14,858 (4953, 22783)
PCVb	1.2	121,274	19.7 (22.9, 17.3)	8808 (4893, 11744)
Hibb	41	72,421	24.9 (26.9, 21.7)	3507 (0, 6429)
PCV+Hib	-	-	16.9 (22.9, 12.1)	12,315 (4893,18173)

^aI_v,PCV = I_u (1 − VE_PCV). I_v,Hib = I_u (1 − VE_Hib). I_{v,PCV + Hib} = (n_T,u − n_T,v)/N_T.VE_PCV: 27% (95%CI: 15%, 36%) [63]. VE_Hib: 18% (95%CI: -2%, 33%) [13].

^b Estimated using data from Shanghai [18], and assuming that Beijing voluntary vaccination rates are approximately the same as those in Shanghai.