Table 4.
Overall association between change in BMI or relative weight and diabetes risk, and population attributable fractions for maintenance or decrease in weight over 10 years. Vӓsterbotten Intervention Programme 1990–2013
| Total (n) | Diabetes events (n) | % | OR | 95% CI | PAF | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modela | (%) | 95% CI | ||||||
| Change in BMI between baseline and 10 year follow-up, Δkg/m2 (mean, SD) | ||||||||
| Any gain (> +1.0 kg/m2) | 17,876 | 701 | 3.9 | 1.52 | 1.32, 1.74 | – | – | |
| Maintenance (±1.0 kg/m2) | 12,020 | 317 | 2.6 | 1.00 | Ref | i | 21.9 | 15.8, 27.6 |
| Moderate loss (−1.0 to −2.0 kg/m2) | 1,923 | 45 | 2.3 | 0.72 | 0.52, 0.99 | ii | 42.4 | 24.3, 56.1 |
| Large loss (> −2.0 kg/m2) | 1,365 | 24 | 1.8 | 0.39 | 0.25, 0.60 | iii | 68.6 | 53.5, 78.9 |
| Weight change between baseline and 10 year follow-up, relative to baseline weight | ||||||||
| Any gain (> +3.0%) | 18,797 | 705 | 3.8 | 1.51 | 1.31, 1.75 | – | – | |
| Maintenance (±3.0%) | 9,663 | 277 | 2.9 | 1.00 | Ref | i | 22.0 | 15.5, 28.0 |
| Moderate loss (−3.0 to −7.0%) | 2,845 | 68 | 2.4 | 0.76 | 0.58, 1.00 | ii | 38.2 | 23.4, 50.0 |
| Large loss (> −7.0%) | 1,879 | 37 | 2.0 | 0.51 | 0.36, 0.73 | iii | 57.5 | 41.8, 68.9 |
OR estimates adjusted for BMI at baseline (continuous) and the co-variates sex, age at baseline (30, 40 or 50 years), calendar year at baseline (continuous), educational level, marital status, family history of diabetes and tobacco use
BMI Body mass index, CI Confidence interval, OR Odds ratio, PAF Population attributable fraction
aThe assumed counterfactuals were: weight maintenance vs. any gain (i), moderate weight loss vs. maintenance or any gain (ii), and large weight loss vs. moderate loss or maintenance or any gain (iii)