Table 5. Overview of selected benefits and harms (per 100,000 individuals alive at the start of 2015) of the screening scenarios on the efficient frontier (effect estimates are not discounted).
Scenario #* | Percentage of the total population ever screened | CT screens and follow-up examinations (per 100,000) | Lung cancer mortality reduction in the total population (%) | Lung cancer deaths prevented† (per 100,000) | Life-years gained (per 100,000) | Average number of life-years gained per lung cancer death averted | Percentage of screen-detected cancers that are overdiagnosed | Number of overdiagnosed lung cancers (per 100,000)‡ | False-positive screens (per 100,000) | Number of non-lung cancer surgeries due to screening§ (per 100,000) | Biopsies due to screening§ (per 100,000) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | 8.74% | 73,248 | 8.24% | 229 | 2,170 | 9.48 | 13.06% | 80 | 11,937 | 132 | 283 |
#2 | 9.56% | 91,692 | 9.05% | 251 | 2,531 | 10.08 | 12.53% | 82 | 14,729 | 163 | 350 |
#3 | 13.03% | 125,320 | 10.50% | 292 | 2,993 | 10.25 | 12.31% | 93 | 20,145 | 223 | 479 |
#4 | 13.04% | 135,410 | 11.71% | 325 | 3,159 | 9.72 | 14.43% | 127 | 21,575 | 239 | 514 |
#5 | 15.41% | 161,159 | 11.93% | 331 | 3,388 | 10.24 | 12.34% | 106 | 25,698 | 285 | 612 |
#6 | 15.42% | 177,014 | 13.58% | 377 | 3,624 | 9.61 | 14.68% | 150 | 27,947 | 311 | 667 |
#7 | 16.06% | 225,062 | 15.71% | 436 | 4,129 | 9.47 | 14.89% | 176 | 34,933 | 390 | 838 |
#8 | 16.06% | 255,207 | 17.32% | 481 | 4,422 | 9.19 | 15.48% | 203 | 39,228 | 438 | 943 |
#9 | 16.19% | 270,354 | 17.59% | 489 | 4,577 | 9.36 | 15.36% | 204 | 41,414 | 463 | 997 |
#10 | 19.99% | 355,448 | 19.51% | 542 | 5,142 | 9.49 | 15.15% | 221 | 54,259 | 607 | 1,308 |
#11 | 26.13% | 473,383 | 21.92% | 609 | 5,774 | 9.48 | 15.14% | 248 | 72,221 | 809 | 1,742 |
* Scenario details are provided in Table 4.
† Number of lung cancer deaths per 100,000 without screening: 2,777.
‡ Number of lung cancer cases per 100,000 without screening: 3,522.
§ For persons in whom lung cancer was not detected by screening.