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. 2017 Feb 7;14(2):e1002225. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002225

Table 5. Overview of selected benefits and harms (per 100,000 individuals alive at the start of 2015) of the screening scenarios on the efficient frontier (effect estimates are not discounted).

Scenario #* Percentage of the total population ever screened CT screens and follow-up examinations (per 100,000) Lung cancer mortality reduction in the total population (%) Lung cancer deaths prevented (per 100,000) Life-years gained (per 100,000) Average number of life-years gained per lung cancer death averted Percentage of screen-detected cancers that are overdiagnosed Number of overdiagnosed lung cancers (per 100,000) False-positive screens (per 100,000) Number of non-lung cancer surgeries due to screening§ (per 100,000) Biopsies due to screening§ (per 100,000)
#1 8.74% 73,248 8.24% 229 2,170 9.48 13.06% 80 11,937 132 283
#2 9.56% 91,692 9.05% 251 2,531 10.08 12.53% 82 14,729 163 350
#3 13.03% 125,320 10.50% 292 2,993 10.25 12.31% 93 20,145 223 479
#4 13.04% 135,410 11.71% 325 3,159 9.72 14.43% 127 21,575 239 514
#5 15.41% 161,159 11.93% 331 3,388 10.24 12.34% 106 25,698 285 612
#6 15.42% 177,014 13.58% 377 3,624 9.61 14.68% 150 27,947 311 667
#7 16.06% 225,062 15.71% 436 4,129 9.47 14.89% 176 34,933 390 838
#8 16.06% 255,207 17.32% 481 4,422 9.19 15.48% 203 39,228 438 943
#9 16.19% 270,354 17.59% 489 4,577 9.36 15.36% 204 41,414 463 997
#10 19.99% 355,448 19.51% 542 5,142 9.49 15.15% 221 54,259 607 1,308
#11 26.13% 473,383 21.92% 609 5,774 9.48 15.14% 248 72,221 809 1,742

* Scenario details are provided in Table 4.

Number of lung cancer deaths per 100,000 without screening: 2,777.

Number of lung cancer cases per 100,000 without screening: 3,522.

§ For persons in whom lung cancer was not detected by screening.