Table 2.
Parameters for various sensitivity scenarios and base case.
| Base case | S1: Max Gavi tail $ | S2: PAHO $ | S3: WHO-CHOICE | S4: Low incid & CFR | S5: High incid & CFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | ||||||
| Vaccine cost | $3.30 | $3.50 | $15.68 | $3.30 | $3.30 | $3.30 |
| Hospitalization cost | ||||||
| Meningitis | $271.02 | $271.02 | $271.02 | $1,771.44 | $271.02 | $271.02 |
| Pneumonia | $160.30 | $160.30 | $160.30 | $527.63 | $160.30 | $160.30 |
| NPNM | $271.02 | $271.02 | $271.02 | $1,771.44 | $271.02 | $271.02 |
| Out-of-pocket cost | ||||||
| Meningitis | $145.93 | $145.93 | $145.93 | $953.85 | $145.93 | $145.93 |
| Pneumonia | $86.32 | $86.32 | $86.32 | $284.11 | $86.32 | $86.32 |
| NPNM | $145.93 | $145.93 | $145.93 | $953.85 | $145.93 | $145.93 |
| AOM | $4.48 | $4.48 | $4.48 | $5 | $4.48 | $4.48 |
| Incidence | ||||||
| Meningitis | ||||||
| 0 year old | 0.00060 | 0.00060 | 0.00060 | 0.00060 | 0.00003 | 0.00014 |
| 1 year old | 0.00018 | 0.00018 | 0.00018 | 0.00018 | 0.00003 | 0.00014 |
| 2 year old | 0.00004 | 0.00004 | 0.00004 | 0.00004 | 0.00003 | 0.00014 |
| 3 year old | 0.00003 | 0.00003 | 0.00003 | 0.00003 | 0.00003 | 0.00014 |
| 4 year old | 0.00006 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 | 0.00006 | 0.00003 | 0.00014 |
| Pneumonia IPD | ||||||
| 0 year old | 0.00063 | 0.00063 | 0.00063 | 0.00063 | 0.00065 | 0.00103 |
| 1 year old | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00036 | 0.00058 |
| 2 year old | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00036 | 0.00058 |
| 3 year old | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00036 | 0.00058 |
| 4 year old | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00035 | 0.00036 | 0.00058 |
| NPNM | ||||||
| 0 year old | 0.00228 | 0.00228 | 0.00228 | 0.00228 | 0.00017 | 0.00084 |
| 1 year old | 0.00178 | 0.00178 | 0.00178 | 0.00178 | 0.00017 | 0.00084 |
| 2 year old | 0.00052 | 0.00052 | 0.00052 | 0.00052 | 0.00017 | 0.00084 |
| 3 year old | 0.00012 | 0.00012 | 0.00012 | 0.00012 | 0.00017 | 0.00084 |
| 4 year old | 0.00024 | 0.00024 | 0.00024 | 0.00024 | 0.00017 | 0.00084 |
| Pneumonia nIPD | ||||||
| 0 year old | 0.02038 | 0.02038 | 0.02038 | 0.02038 | 0.02092 | 0.03345 |
| 1 year old | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01165 | 0.01863 |
| 2 year old | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01165 | 0.01863 |
| 3 year old | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01165 | 0.01863 |
| 4 year old | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01135 | 0.01165 | 0.01863 |
| Case fatality risk | ||||||
| Meningitis U5 | 0.346 | 0.346 | 0.346 | 0.346 | 0.100 | 0.680 |
| Pneumonia IPD U5 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0.010 | 0.030 |
| NPNM U5 | 0.271 | 0.271 | 0.271 | 0.271 | 0.080 | 0.530 |
S: scenario; CFR: case fatality risk; Incid: Incidence; U5: children under 5 years old; NPNM: non-pneumonia non-meningitis; IPD: invasive pneumococcal disease; nIPD: non-invasive pneumococcal disease.
S1: Higher vaccine cost-Gavi AMC maximum tail price; S2: Higher vaccine cost- Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund price; S3:Higher hospitalization costs from WHO-CHOICE; S4: Minimum-impact scenario for vaccine introduction, using lower bounds from regional estimates for incidence and CFR for meningitis, pneumonia and NPNM IPD; S5: maximum-impact scenario from vaccine introduction, using upper bounds from regional estimates for incidence and CFR for meningitis, pneumonia and NPNM IPD.
All parameters of the base case and parameters in each of the scenarios where they differ from the base case have been highlighted in bold characters.