Table 2.

Allocation of national-level people protected by IRS, to Admin1 units: Nigeria 2015

Admin1/state	Population	PfPR % 2–9 years	ITN coverage %	Probability of IRS	People pro-tected by IRS	IRS coverage %
Abia	3,680,378	37	27	73%
Adamawa	3,914,499	31	18	82%
Akwa Ibom	4,859,492	40	33	67%
Anambra	5,642,911	14	24	76%
Bauchi	5,816,387	30	19	81%
Bayelsa	1,938,009	19	35	65%
Benue	5,545,269	28	31	69%
Borno	5,409,746	19	17	83%
Cross River	3,696,053	28	39	61%
Delta	5,109,252	13	25	75%
Ebonyi	2,673,883	26	38	62%
Edo	4,583,326	20	23	77%
Ekiti	3,056,399	43	30	70%
Enugu	4,238,001	14	28	72%
FCT - Abuja	1,569,832	33	27	73%
Gombe	2,996,780	29	19	81%
Imo	5,025,285	34	27	73%
Jigawa	5,648,410	19	26	74%
Kaduna	7,933,232	46	21	79%
Kano	12,733,799	23	16	84%	316,255	2.5
Katsina	7,692,509	25	25	75%
Kebbi	4,196,653	41	30	70%
Kogi	4,107,085	28	30	70%
Kwara	3,223,696	42	30	70%
Lagos	14,316,546	5	22	78%
Nassarawa	2,332,988	32	26	74%
Niger	5,207,649	41	26	74%
Ogun	4,248,558	21	36	64%
Ondo	4,551,442	35	32	68%
Osun	4,830,341	40	26	74%
Oyo	7,588,162	33	31	69%
Plateau	4,071,155	27	25	75%
Rivers	6,195,103	19	30	70%
Sokoto	4,607,886	22	19	81%
Taraba	2,761,408	33	21	79%
Yobe	3,067,612	20	21	79%
Zamfara	4,501,061	32	18	82%
Nigeria national	183,570,791	27	25		316,255	0.17

The Spectrum algorithm for sub-national IRS allocation first excludes all Admin1 units with 0 PfPR (if any, not applicable in Nigeria). Among Admin1s with >0 PfPR, IRS gets allocated according the highest complement of ITN coverage (=100% − ITN coverage), at 90% IRS coverage (of the population living at PfPR>) for each successive Admin1 unit, until the total people protected across selected Admin1 units saturates to the national total number of people protected. The last Admin1 unit allocated IRS gets a <90% IRS coverage (for Nigeria at 2015: Kano state, with 2.5% IRS coverage), to exactly meet the national total number