Fig. 2.

Mean fitted probability (solid line) of parasitism by European bitterling (Rhodeus amarus) and 95% credible intervals (shaded area) for different host mussel species a Anodonta anatina; b A. cygnea; c Unio pictorum; d U. tumidus, for day since 1st May (the putative start of the bitterling spawning season) for a Bernoulli GAMM estimated by MCMC comprising 50,000 Markov Chain samples for each estimated parameter. Probabilities were derived by adding the intercept, species effect, smoother and covariate, and applying the inverse logistic link function for each MCMC iteration