Table 3.
Interleukin 1 signaling pathway gene expression predicts the risk of future frequent exacerbations
| Marker | AUC % | P-value | 95% CI | Minimal false negativesa
|
Minimal false positivesa
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔCt cut point | Sensitivity% | Specificity% | ΔCt cut point | Sensitivity% | Specificity% | ||||
| COPD + Asthma | |||||||||
| IRAK2 | 68.6 | 0.004 | 0.56–0.81 | <2.70 | 70.0 | 61.0 | <1.59 | 60.0 | 78.0 |
| IRAK3 | 75.4 | <0.001 | 0.64–0.87 | <6.44 | 80.0 | 72.9 | <5.24 | 63.3 | 79.7 |
| PELI1 | 71.2 | <0.001 | 0.59–0.83 | <3.87 | 73.3 | 62.7 | <3.20 | 56.7 | 72.9 |
| IL1R1 | 72.8 | <0.001 | 0.61–0.85 | <6.13 | 73.3 | 64.4 | <5.18 | 66.7 | 81.4 |
| COPD | |||||||||
| IRAK2 | 66.3 | 0.042 | 0.50–0.83 | <2.71 | 72.7 | 57.6 | <0.79 | 59.1 | 72.7 |
| IRAK3 | 76.0 | 0.001 | 0.62–0.91 | <6.44 | 86.4 | 69.7 | <5.12 | 68.2 | 81.8 |
| PELI1 | 68.6 | 0.020 | 0.53 0.84 | <3.48 | 68.2 | 60.6 | <2.74 | 59.1 | 78.8 |
| IL1R1 | 71.5 | 0.007 | 0.56–0.87 | <6.13 | 77.3 | 60.6 | <5.18 | 68.2 | 81.8 |
| Asthma | |||||||||
| IRAK2 | 72.1 | 0.062 | 0.52–0.93 | <3.15 | 75.0 | 50.0 | <1.59 | 50.0 | 92.3 |
| IRAK3 | 73.6 | 0.047 | 0.54–0.93 | <7.56 | 75.0 | 53.9 | <6.36 | 62.5 | 76.9 |
| PELI1 | 74.0 | 0.042 | 0.56–0.92 | <4.51 | 75.0 | 61.5 | <3.92 | 62.5 | 76.9 |
| IL1R1 | 73.6 | 0.047 | 0.54–0.93 | <6.86 | 75.0 | 65.4 | <5.26 | 62.5 | 80.8 |
Note:
a
Minimal false-negative results correspond to the point of the receiver operating characteristic curve with the highest sensitivity (true-positive rate, which is useful for ruling disease out), whereas minimal false-positive results correspond to the point with the highest specificity (false-positive rate, which is useful for ruling disease in).
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval.