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. 2017 Jan 25;284(1847):20162533. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2533

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© 2017 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 4. — Predicted probabilities of a reef having a net positive (1) or negative (0) carbonate budget. (a) Likelihood of having a net positive budget in 2014, predicted using the BRT model based on 1994 data. 95% of these predicted states match with the empirically calculated states. (b) Using the same model, likelihood of positive budget states on Seychelles reefs in 2030 if there was a bleaching event in 2016 of similar magnitude to that in 1998 (similar post-bleaching interval as between the 1998 bleaching and 2014 surveys).