Fig. 4.

Projection of pink-footed goose population size (in thousands) based on current model weights and assuming a harvest of 11 300 (average of 2011–2013) (a) and 15 000 (b). Vertical lines represent 95% confidence limits, boxes are the interquartile ranges, horizontal lines are medians, and the open circle characters represent the means. Projections of population size were based on observed, post-harvest population size in 2013, random variation in positive temperature days in Svalbard in May (as a proxy of advancement of spring) and model process error. Each time series was simulated five thousand times (after Johnson et al. 2014b)