Figure 3. Sensitivity analyses varying PML risk profile.

One-way sensitivity analysis showed the effect of varying the annual probability (P) of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) over a clinically probable range of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued over 30 years (A). An equivalence threshold is defined as the crossing point between colored lines (A) and represents the annual P_PML that is associated with the same QALY value resulting from both treatments. The equivalence thresholds for fingolimod (FGL)–glatiramer acetate (GA) (P_PML = 1.33%) and for natalizumab (NTZ)-GA (P_PML = 3.39%) are displayed (dashed lines, A). In patients developing PML, one-way sensitivity analyses showed the effect of varying PML survival (B) and PML morbidity (C) on QALYs accrued over 30 years. PML morbidity is defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) in survivors of PML. Using the scenario representing the worst PML survival (PML survival = 0%, D), NTZ treatment accrues more QALYs over 30 years compared to FGL or GA.