Table 1.
Liver Transplant Model Variables
Parameter | Min | Base Case | Max | References |
---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline Age | 35 | 50 | 65 | Assumption |
Sustained virologic response rate | ||||
Pre-LT SVR rate | 0.700 | 0.840 | 0.930 | (16-18) |
Post-LT SVR rate | 0.900 | 0.950 | 0.980 | (16-18) |
Transition probabilities | ||||
Liver transplant to liver-related death (3 months of 1st LT) | 0.118 | 0.124 | 0.129 | (33) |
Liver transplant to liver-related death (3 months of repeated LT) | 0.240 | 0.264 | 0.287 | (33) |
Liver transplant to graft failure (3 months of 1st LT) | 0.161 | 0.167 | 0.173 | (33) |
Liver transplant to graft failure (3 months of repeated LT) | 0.287 | 0.312 | 0.336 | (33) |
Sustained virologic response to liver-related death (1st year) | 0.082 | 0.110 | 0.137 | Figure 10, (34) |
Sustained virologic response to liver-related death (subsequent year) | 0.024 | 0.032 | 0.04 | Figure 10, (34) |
Sustained virologic response to graft failure | 0.037 | 0.050 | 0.062 | Figure 3, (35) |
F0-F2 to liver-related death (1st year of 1st LT) | 0.118 | 0.124 | 0.129 | (33) |
F0-F2 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of 1st LT | 0.040 | 0.041 | 0.042 | (33) |
F0-F2 to liver-related death (1st year of repeated LT) | 0.240 | 0.264 | 0.287 | (33) |
F0-F2 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of repeated LT) | 0.070 | 0.072 | 0.075 | (33) |
F3-F4 to liver-related death (1st year of 1st LT) | 0.118 | 0.124 | 0.129 | (33) |
F3-F4 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of 1st LT | 0.040 | 0.041 | 0.042 | (33) |
F3-F4 to liver-related death (1st year of repeated LT) | 0.240 | 0.264 | 0.287 | (33) |
F3-F4 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of repeated LT) | 0.070 | 0.072 | 0.075 | (33) |
F0–F2 to graft failure (1st year of 1st LT) | 0.161 | 0.167 | 0.173 | (33) |
F0–F2 to graft failure (1st year of repeat LT) | 0.287 | 0.312 | 0.336 | (33) |
F3–F4 to graft failure (1st year of 1st LT) | 0.315 | 0.290 | 0.525 | (36) |
F3–F4 to graft failure (1st year of repeat LT) | 0.287 | 0.312 | 0.336 | (33) |
F0–F2 to graft failure (subsequent year of 1st LT) | 0.050 | 0.051 | 0.052 | (33) |
F0–F2 to graft failure (subsequent year of repeat LT) | 0.093 | 0.095 | 0.098 | (33) |
F3–F4 to graft failure (subsequent year of 1st LT) | 0.050 | 0.051 | 0.052 | (33) |
F3–F4 to graft failure (subsequent year of repeat LT) | 0.093 | 0.095 | 0.098 | (33) |
Graft failure to liver-related death | 0.489 | 0.652 | 0.815 | UNOS data |
Graft failure to repeat transplant | 0.604 | 0.805 | 1.000 | UNOS data |
F0–F2 to F3–F4 | 0.040 | 0.044 | 0.055 | (37) |
Decrease in transplant rate due to achieving SVR | 0.050 | 0.080 | 0.150 | Assumption |
Health-related quality-of-life weights | ||||
Transplant waiting list | 0.570 | 0.800 | 0.990 | (38, 39) |
Liver transplant | 0.370 | 0.600 | 0.730 | (40) |
F0–F2 | 0.716 | 0.828 | 0.865 | (39, 40) |
F3–F4 | 0.693 | 0.801 | 0.837 | (39, 40) |
Antiviral Treatment | 0.770 | 0.890 | 0.930 | (40) |
Sustained virologic response | 0.770 | 0.890 | 0.930 | (40) |
Graft failure | 0.570 | 0.800 | 0.990 | (38, 41) |