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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: Hepatology. 2017 Jan 6;65(3):777–788. doi: 10.1002/hep.28926

Table 1.

Liver Transplant Model Variables

Parameter Min Base Case Max References
Baseline Age 35 50 65 Assumption
Sustained virologic response rate
Pre-LT SVR rate 0.700 0.840 0.930 (16-18)
Post-LT SVR rate 0.900 0.950 0.980 (16-18)
Transition probabilities
Liver transplant to liver-related death (3 months of 1st LT) 0.118 0.124 0.129 (33)
Liver transplant to liver-related death (3 months of repeated LT) 0.240 0.264 0.287 (33)
Liver transplant to graft failure (3 months of 1st LT) 0.161 0.167 0.173 (33)
Liver transplant to graft failure (3 months of repeated LT) 0.287 0.312 0.336 (33)
Sustained virologic response to liver-related death (1st year) 0.082 0.110 0.137 Figure 10, (34)
Sustained virologic response to liver-related death (subsequent year) 0.024 0.032 0.04 Figure 10, (34)
Sustained virologic response to graft failure 0.037 0.050 0.062 Figure 3, (35)
F0-F2 to liver-related death (1st year of 1st LT) 0.118 0.124 0.129 (33)
F0-F2 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of 1st LT 0.040 0.041 0.042 (33)
F0-F2 to liver-related death (1st year of repeated LT) 0.240 0.264 0.287 (33)
F0-F2 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of repeated LT) 0.070 0.072 0.075 (33)
F3-F4 to liver-related death (1st year of 1st LT) 0.118 0.124 0.129 (33)
F3-F4 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of 1st LT 0.040 0.041 0.042 (33)
F3-F4 to liver-related death (1st year of repeated LT) 0.240 0.264 0.287 (33)
F3-F4 to liver-related death (Subsequent year of repeated LT) 0.070 0.072 0.075 (33)
F0–F2 to graft failure (1st year of 1st LT) 0.161 0.167 0.173 (33)
F0–F2 to graft failure (1st year of repeat LT) 0.287 0.312 0.336 (33)
F3–F4 to graft failure (1st year of 1st LT) 0.315 0.290 0.525 (36)
F3–F4 to graft failure (1st year of repeat LT) 0.287 0.312 0.336 (33)
F0–F2 to graft failure (subsequent year of 1st LT) 0.050 0.051 0.052 (33)
F0–F2 to graft failure (subsequent year of repeat LT) 0.093 0.095 0.098 (33)
F3–F4 to graft failure (subsequent year of 1st LT) 0.050 0.051 0.052 (33)
F3–F4 to graft failure (subsequent year of repeat LT) 0.093 0.095 0.098 (33)
Graft failure to liver-related death 0.489 0.652 0.815 UNOS data
Graft failure to repeat transplant 0.604 0.805 1.000 UNOS data
F0–F2 to F3–F4 0.040 0.044 0.055 (37)
Decrease in transplant rate due to achieving SVR 0.050 0.080 0.150 Assumption
Health-related quality-of-life weights
Transplant waiting list 0.570 0.800 0.990 (38, 39)
Liver transplant 0.370 0.600 0.730 (40)
F0–F2 0.716 0.828 0.865 (39, 40)
F3–F4 0.693 0.801 0.837 (39, 40)
Antiviral Treatment 0.770 0.890 0.930 (40)
Sustained virologic response 0.770 0.890 0.930 (40)
Graft failure 0.570 0.800 0.990 (38, 41)