Table 4.
Estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of R 0 for the 2009 pH1N1 in Mexico with different lengths of infectious period (1/γ), proportions of asymptomatic infections (θ), average duration of stays (d), and trends of travel rates
| 1/γ = 3 days | 1/γ = 2 days | 1/γ = 4 days | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Settings | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | |||||
| Uniformly travels | d = 3 days | θ = 30% | 1.69 | (1.65, 1.73) | 1.45 | (1.42, 1.48) | 1.94 | (1.88, 1.99) |
| θ = 10% | 1.67 | (1.63, 1.70) | 1.44 | (1.41, 1.46) | 1.91 | (1.86, 1.95) | ||
| θ = 50% | 1.73 | (1.69, 1.78) | 1.48 | (1.44, 1.51) | 1.99 | (1.93, 2.06) | ||
| d = 5 days | θ = 30% | 1.66 | (1.62, 1.70) | 1.43 | (1.40, 1.45) | 1.90 | (1.84, 1.95) | |
| θ = 10% | 1.64 | (1.60, 1.67) | 1.41 | (1.39, 1.44) | 1.86 | (1.81, 1.91) | ||
| θ = 50% | 1.70 | (1.65, 1.74) | 1.45 | (1.42, 1.48) | 1.95 | (1.88, 2.01) | ||
| Decreasing travels | d = 3 days | θ = 30% | 1.70 | (1.66, 1.74) | 1.46 | (1.43, 1.48) | 1.95 | (1.89, 2.00) |
| θ = 10% | 1.68 | (1.64, 1.71) | 1.44 | (1.41, 1.46) | 1.92 | (1.87, 1.96) | ||
| θ = 50% | 1.74 | (1.69, 1.79) | 1.48 | (1.45, 1.51) | 2.00 | (1.93, 2.06) | ||
| d = 5 days | θ = 30% | 1.68 | (1.63, 1.71) | 1.43 | (1.40, 1.46) | 1.90 | (1.85, 1.96) | |
| θ = 10% | 1.64 | (1.60, 1.68) | 1.42 | (1.39, 1.44) | 1.87 | (1.82, 1.92) | ||
| θ = 50% | 1.70 | (1.66, 1.75) | 1.46 | (1.43, 1.49) | 1.95 | (1.89, 2.01) | ||