FIG 4.

Parameters associated with a high future prevalence of pre-XDR TB. Leading drivers of future pre-XDR TB prevalence, as assessed by logistic regression on the odds of the primary outcome, namely, exceeding a predefined acceptability threshold of 1 case per 100,000 population in 2035, comparing baseline conditions (blue and black squares) to the alternative scenario in which PZA is replaced (gray diamonds). Odds ratios reflect the change in the primary outcome associated with an increase of 1/10 of a standard deviation in the independent variable. Parameters related to strains resistant to PZA only (PZAr) or resistant to both RIF and PZA (RIF/PZAr) are highlighted in blue. As an example of scale, 1/10 of a standard deviation corresponds to absolute changes of 0.5% in the probability of acquiring RIF resistance in a single course of treatment, 6% in the transmission fitness of RIF- and PZA-resistant strains, or 5% in the probability of cure for RIF- and PZA-resistant strains on the first-line regimen.