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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: Prev Vet Med. 2017 Jan 10;138:17–27. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.007

Figure 3.

Figure 3

Cumulative distribution function of total prevalence after 25 years in a herd endemically infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis, for the top 5 control programs (based on Net Present Value dominance) and doing nothing (gray) under each herd scenario (a: 100 head, 10% initial shedding prevalence; b: 1,000 head, 10% initial shedding prevalence; c: 100 head, 20% initial shedding prevalence; d: 1,000 head, 20% initial shedding prevalence), compared to the distribution of initial prevalence (green). In the 100 head herd with 10% initial shedding prevalence, elimination occurred in 19% of herds with culling of all PCR positive, 3% of herds with culling of PCR high-positives, and 2% of herds with moderately improved hygiene; elimination did not occur in any of the other herd scenarios.