Table 1. Classification of CMIP5 models in the three sub-ensembles.
| Subset name | List of models | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-abrupt | ACCESS1-0; ACCESS1-3; bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m; BNU-ESM; CanESM2; CCSM4; CESM1-BGC; CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2; CMCC-CESM; CMCC-CM; CMCC-CMS; CNRM-CM; EC-EARTH; FGOLAS-g2; GFDL-CM3; GISS-E2-H; GISS-E2-H-CC; HadGEM2-AO; HadGEM2-CC; HadGEM2-ES; IPSL-CM5A-LR; IPSL-CM5A-MR; IPSL-CM5B-LR; MIROC-ESM; MIROC-ESM-CHEM; MPI-ESM-LR; MPI-ESM-MR; MRI-CGCM3; Nor-ESM1-M; NorESM1-ME |
|||
| Model | Scenario | Year of occurrence | Δ GMT (oC) | |
| SPG convection collapse | ||||
| CESM1-CAM5 | RCP8.5 | ∼2075 | 3.8 | |
| CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | RCP2.6 | ∼2025 | 1.6 | |
| GFDL-ESM2G | Historical | ∼1920 | 0.2 | |
| GFDL-ESM2M | RCP2.6RCP4.5 | ∼2025∼2050 | 1.11.9 | |
| GISS-E2-R | RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5 | ∼2050∼2050∼2055 | 1.41.61.9 | |
| GISS-E2-R-CC | RCP4.5RCP8.5 | ∼2050∼2050 | 1.72.0 | |
| MIROC5 | RCP2.6 | ∼2065 | 1.4 | |
| AMOC disruption | ||||
| FGOALS-s2 | RCP2.6RCP4.5 | ∼2025∼2030 | 2.22.5 | |
| FIO-ESM | RCP2.6RCP4.5 | ∼2035∼2025 | 1.41.6 | |
List of models belonging to the three different sub-ensembles identified. For those models producing an SPG abrupt cooling (SPG convection collapse models and AMOC disruption models) the scenario and the year of occurrence of the event have been also displayed. In addition, the corresponding level of global warming calculated from the pre-industrial global mean temperature has been shown for all abrupt events.