Table 1. TERGMs of the conflict network with geographic contiguity interacted with alliances, 1965–2000.
All models are estimated with bootstrap-corrected pseudolikelihood using 1000 replications. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals are presented in brackets. Coefficients and confidence intervals displayed in bold are statistically significant at the P = 0.05 level.
| Variable | Model 1 | Model 2 | |
| Edges | −7.99 (−8.24 to −7.77) | −8.06 (−8.28 to −7.85) | |
| Alternating k-stars (2) | 1.11 (0.98 to 1.22) | 1.11 (0.98 to 1.23) | |
| Four-cycle | 0.56 (0.44 to 1.16) | 0.55 (0.44 to 1.08) | |
| GWESP (0) | −0.30 (−0.51 to −0.13) | −0.31 (−0.52 to −0.13) | |
| Joint democracy | −0.66 (−0.91 to −0.44) | −0.69 (−0.94 to −0.49) | |
| Direct contiguity | 4.34 (4.10 to 4.64) | 4.39 (4.16 to 4.68) | |
| Capability ratio | −0.17 (−0.22 to −0.12) | −0.16 (−0.22 to −0.12) | |
| Trade dependence | −0.18 (−0.52 to −0.05) | −0.16 (−0.43 to −0.04) | |
| One-degree alliance | 0.96 (0.44 to 1.42) | ||
| Two-degree alliance | 0.17 (−0.31 to 0.61) | ||
| Three-degree alliance | 0.44 (−0.03 to 0.91) | ||
| Four-degree alliance | −0.26 (−1.02 to 0.26) | ||
| Contiguity × One-degree alliance | −1.49 (−1.92 to −0.99) | ||
| Contiguity × Two-degree alliance | −0.84 (−1.45 to −0.27) | ||
| Contiguity × Three-degree alliance | −1.28 (−2.10 to −0.54) | ||
| Contiguity × Four-degree alliance | 0.13 (−0.85 to 1.15) | ||
| Within community | 0.70 (0.26 to 1.10) | ||
| Neighboring communities | 0.63 (0.27 to 0.99) | ||
| Contiguity × Within community | −1.16 (−1.54 to −0.73) | ||
| Contiguity × Neighboring communities | −1.43 (−2.02 to −0.87) |