Table 3. Performance of prediction analysis with models M1, M2 and M3.

Follow-up	Model	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	AUC (95% CI)
First	M1	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.93	0.76 (0.70–0.82)
	M2	0.59	0.99	0.86	0.97	0.92 (0.89–0.96)
	M3	0.62	0.99	0.85	0.97	0.95 (0.92–0.97)
Second	M1	0.05	0.99	0.50	0.89	0.76 (0.71–0.81)
	M2	0.55	0.98	0.77	0.95	0.93 (0.91–0.96)
	M3	0.68	0.98	0.84	0.96	0.96 (0.94–0.97)
Third	M1	0.08	0.99	0.53	0.86	0.73 (0.68–0.78)
	M2	0.49	0.98	0.79	0.92	0.89 (0.84–0.91)
	M3	0.57	0.98	0.84	0.93	0.90 (0.86–0.93)
Fourth	M1	0.10	0.98	0.56	0.85	0.73 (0.68–0.78)
	M2	0.50	0.98	0.81	0.91	0.87 (0.83–0.90)
	M3	0.55	0.98	0.83	0.92	0.88 (0.85–0.92)
Average	M1	0.06	0.99	0.40	0.88	0.75
	M2	0.53	0.98	0.81	0.94	0.90
	M3	0.61	0.98	0.84	0.95	0.92

NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; AUC, area under curve.