Table 4.
Diagnostic values of case management algorithm, by age group, transmission season, and malaria transmission risk zone
| Risk zone | Age group (years) | Season | TP | FP | FN | TN | SENS % (95% CI) |
SPEC % (95% CI) |
NPV % (95% CI) |
PPV % (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North (low) | <5 | Dry | 1 | 135 | 0 | 160 | 100.0 (2.5–100.0) | 54.2 (48.4–60.0) | 100.0 (a) | 0.7 (0.7–0.8) |
| Rainy | 4 | 165 | 1 | 207 | 80.0 (28.4–99.5) | 55.6 (50.4–60.8) | 99.5 (97.3–99.9) | 2.4 (1.5–3.7) | ||
| All year | 5 | 300 | 1 | 367 | 83.3 (36.9–99.6) | 55.0 (51.2–58.8) | 99.7 (98.4–100.00) | 1.6 (1.1–2.4) | ||
| ≥5 | Dry | 2 | 192 | 0 | 129 | 100.0 (15.8–100.0) | 40.2 (34.8–45.8) | 100.0 (a) | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | |
| Rainy | 11 | 265 | 0 | 161 | 100.0 (71.5–100.0) | 37.8 (33.2–42.6) | 100.0 (a) | 4.0 (3.7–4.3) | ||
| All year | 13 | 457 | 0 | 290 | 100.0 (75.3–100.0) | 38.8 (35.3–42.4) | 100.0 (a) | 2.8 (2.6–2.9) | ||
| Centre (mod) | <5 | Dry | 14 | 156 | 5 | 193 | 73.7 (48.8–90.9) | 55.3 (49.9–60.6) | 97.5 (94.5–98.8) | 8.2 (6.3–10.7) |
| Rainy | 66 | 123 | 21 | 187 | 75.9 (65.5–84.4) | 60.3 (54.6–65.8) | 89.9 (85.9–92.9) | 34.9 (30.9–39.2) | ||
| All year | 80 | 279 | 26 | 380 | 75.5 (66.2–83.3) | 57.7 (53.8–61.5) | 93.6 (91.2–95.4) | 22.3 (20.0–24.8) | ||
| ≥5 | Dry | 22 | 262 | 4 | 88 | 84.6 (65.1–95.6) | 25.1 (20.7–30.0) | 95.7 (89.8–98.2) | 7.7 (6.6–9.1) | |
| Rainy | 132 | 170 | 23 | 72 | 85.2 (78.6–90.4) | 29.8 (24.1–35.9) | 75.8 (67.2–82.7) | 43.7 (41.1–46.3) | ||
| All year | 154 | 432 | 27 | 160 | 85.1 (79.0–89.9) | 27.0 (23.5–30.8) | 85.6 (80.3–89.6) | 26.3 (24.8–27.8) | ||
| South (high) | <5 | Dry | 28 | 100 | 27 | 137 | 50.9 (37.1–74.7) | 57.8 (51.2–64.2) | 83.5 (79.2–87.2) | 21.9 (17.2–27.4) |
| Rainy | 183 | 53 | 88 | 72 | 67.5 (61.6–73.1) | 57.6 (48.4–66.4) | 45.0 (39.4–50.7) | 77.5 (73.5–81.2) | ||
| All year | 211 | 153 | 115 | 209 | 64.7 (59.3–70.0) | 57.7 (52.5–62.9) | 64.5 (60.5–68.3) | 58.0 (54.4–61.4) | ||
| ≥5 | Dry | 80 | 132 | 35 | 87 | 69.6 (60.3–77.8) | 39.7 (33.2–46.5) | 71.3 (64.3–77.4) | 37.7 (34.0–41.6) | |
| Rainy | 339 | 49 | 63 | 20 | 84.3 (80.4–87.7) | 29.0 (18.7–41.2) | 24.1 (17.1–32.9) | 87.4 (85.5–89.0) | ||
| All year | 419 | 181 | 98 | 107 | 81.0 (77.4–84.3) | 37.2 (31.6–43.0) | 52.2 (46.4–58.0) | 69.8 (67.7–71.9) | ||
| Dakar (mixed) | <5 | Dry | 7 | 85 | 1 | 180 | 87.5 (47.4–99.7) | 67.9 (61.9–73.5) | 99.4 (96.6–99.9) | 7.6 (5.7–10.1) |
| Rainy | 9 | 117 | 7 | 273 | 56.3 (29.9–80.3) | 70.0 (65.2–80.3) | 97.5 (95.7–98.6) | 7.1 (4.6–10.8) | ||
| All year | 16 | 202 | 8 | 453 | 66.7 (44.7–84.4) | 69.2 (65.5–72.7) | 98.3 (97.0–99.0) | 7.3 (5.5–9.7) | ||
| ≥5 | Dry | 15 | 220 | 2 | 162 | 88.2 (63.6–98.5) | 42.4 (37.4–47.5) | 98.8 (95.6–99.7) | 6.4 (5.3–7.6) | |
| Rainy | 162 | 184 | 21 | 127 | 88.5 (83.0–92.8) | 40.8 (35.3–46.5) | 85.8 (79.8–90.2) | 46.8 (44.2–49.5) | ||
| All year | 177 | 404 | 23 | 289 | 88.5 (83.3–92.6) | 41.7 (38.0–45.4) | 92.6 (89.4–94.9) | 30.5 (28.8–32.2) |
TP, true positive: algorithm recommends testing, and RDT is positive; FP, false positive: algorithm recommends testing, and RDT is negative; FN, false negative: algorithm does not recommend testing, and RDT and positive; TN, true negative: algorithm does not recommend testing, and RDT is negative
SENS sensitivity, SPEC specificity, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value
aUnable to calculate