Table S5.

GCM results

Model	Increase in annual precipitation (mm/d)	Increase in summer precipitation (mm/d)	Extent of monsoon in summer
bcc-csm-1–1	0	0.5–0.75	V
CCSM4	0.25–0.5	0.5–0.75	V
CNRM-CM5	0.25–0.5	0.25–0.5	V
CSIRO-Mk3L-1–2	0.25–0.5	1–2	V
CSIRO-Mk3-6–0	0.25–0.5	0.5–0.75	V
FGOALS-g2	0	0.5–0.75	V
FGOALS-s2	0	0	—
GISS-E2-R_p150+151	0	0	—
IPSL-CM5A-LR	0.25–0.5	0.5–0.75	V
NCAR	0–0.5	1–2	V
MICRO-ESM	0–0.25	0 −0.25	—
MPI-ESM-P_p1+p2	0.25–0.5	0.75–1	V
MRI-CGCM3	0.25–0.5	0.75–1	V

Middle Holocene increases in annual and summer precipitation with respect to modern and whether (V) or not (−) the monsoon reaches Lake Dali in summer. (For details regarding the models see: www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/.)